2020 ends with a world economic contraction above 4%, the biggest GDP decrease since World War 2. Among developed nations, growth comes to a standstill after the renewal of activity in Q3 as a result of the surge in cases and the movement restrictions. Services, especially those related to the hotel and leisure industry, experience … Continued
Industrial production, Spain In November 2020, the industrial production index (IPI) fell 3.8% year-on-year against a 1.6% increase in the same month in 2019. By sectors, all showed negative rates except intermediate goods (1.2% year-on-year). Production in the energy sector also fell 7.8% year-on-year, capital goods 7.1% and consumer goods 3.6%. By Autonomous Community, the … Continued
The president of the Health Working Group of the Círculo de Empresarios, Pedro Nieto, analyzes why digitalization is essential to promote the improvement of the health sector in Spain. Click on this link to watch the spanish version. Pedro Nieto analyzes how innovation is a key element to improve the Spanish health system. … Continued
Unlikely events that could take place and have an impact on world growth Amazon “buys” Cyprus Amazon relocates its headquarters to Cyprus, where the tax policy is more favorable. In light of this, the EU reacts to the movements of big tech and calls on member countries to strengthen fiscal harmonization. Germany bails out France … Continued
Mortgages, Spain In September, the number of mortgages approved on properties increased 18.4% year-on-year (26,878 mortgages), making it the highest figure since December 2019 (+44.8%). On the other hand, the average amount fell 1% year-on-year (to €135,035), while the capital loaned increased 17.2% yearon- year (reaching €3.629 billion in September). The average interest rate was … Continued
The sees the economic scenario forecast by the government on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on activity and revenue as optimistic. COVID-19 has obliged the government to increase spending significantly, with forecasts that the structural deficit will reach 5.4% of GDP in 2020. Assuming that part of the exceptional expenditure will remain … Continued
In its autumn perspectives, the European Commission forecasts a 12.4% yearly decrease in GDP for Spain in 2020 (vs. -9.4% in its spring forecast), making it the economy to register the biggest downturn. In 2021, the Spanish economy will grow 5.4%, 1.6pp less than estimated in May, and will not recover production levels prior to … Continued
On November 4 and 5, Círculo de Empresarios and Fundación Rafael del Pino held the First Forum on the Global Economy, an initiative that, on an annual basis, is aimed at discussing the situation and prospects of the world economy. The Forum was opened by John de Zulueta and María del Pino, presidents of the two … Continued
GDP, Spain In Q3 2020, GDP rose 16.7% quarterly (compared to -17.8% Q2 2020), the biggest increase since quarterly reporting began. This development is due to the resumption of economic activity after the end of the household lockdown from previous months, and the recovery of activity during the summer months. In year-on-year terms, after the … Continued
Círculo de Empresarios and Fundación Rafael del Pino have launched the I Forum on the Global Economy, an initiative that is aimed to discuss the situation and prospects of the world’s economy. This Forum, which will take place on November 4th and 5th, will be opened by John de Zulueta and María del Pino, presidents of the … Continued
In 2020, the main international organizations forecast a 1.8 yearly growth rate for China, in contrast to significant decreases for the rest of the economies. In 2019, China’s economy surpassed the whole Eurozone countries in terms of GDP size, and it is expected to overtake the US by 2030, according to forecasts by Oxford Economics. … Continued
In 2020, Iceland, Switzerland and Norway are top of the Global Retirement Index which assesses pensioners’ welfare and financial security. Future retirement security could be at risk as a result of the recent situation caused by Covid-19. Five main risks have been identified. Spain drops for the second year consecutively. It currently holds the 32nd … Continued
Economic situation summary The uncertainty surrounding the spread of Covid 19 is significantly conditioning economic agents’ expectations for the coming years In this context, most international organizations (the IMF, OECD, World Bank and European Commission) project a contraction of GDP above 3 yearly for 2020 and warn of risks such as rising unemployment and a … Continued
Economic forecasts, Spain The Bank of Spain is considering two scenarios on the future evolution of GDP depending on how the Covid-19 pandemic develops. In scenario 11, GDP is forecast to fall 10.5% in 2020, and will increase 7.3% in 2021. In scenario 22, the forecasts are worse, with a fall of 12.6% in 2020, … Continued
Switzerland tops the innovation index for the 10th consecutive year as a result of its business adaptation capacity to new technologies. There is a positive correlation between a country’s degree of development and its capacity to innovate. Nowadays, the most important technological clusters in the world are in the US and East Asia. Spain ranks … Continued
We analyze how the pandemic has affected the economies of India and China. In September, there were more than 25 million cases of Coronavirus worldwide (0.3% of the cases in world population). In accumulated terms, the US is the country with the largest number of cases, followed by India. Currently, India is the country with … Continued
Economic sentiment, Spain In August, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Spain registered a fall of 2.5 points compared to July, reaching 88.1 points. This places Spain as the EU country where confidence levels have fallen the most. The reason for this was the worsening of the data for construction (-5.9 points compared to July), … Continued
Iberian Peninsula countries represent almost 9% of EU GDP and more than 10% of its population. In July, the European Commission forecasted than Spain and Portugal will suffer two of the biggest GDP decreases in the region (-10,9% and 9,8% respectively). Both economies depend on large measure on the service sector, which has been the … Continued
Prepare the economy for rapid response capabilities Reinforce our health and healthcare capabilities Strengthen our education system Maintain a level of manageable indebtedness and a robust capital structure Strengthen our supply chains Create a favorable and stable business environment, guaranteeing judicial security Boost and consolidate public-private partnership models
Economic outlook, Spain In 2020, the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) forecasts that Spanish GDP will be between -10.1% in the best-case scenario (compared to a preliminary -8.9%) and -12.4% (compared to -11.7%) in the worst case. This will depend on the duration of the pandemic, and its capacity for the recovery of economic … Continued
Círculo de Empresarios has presented the book “How to save liberal democracies”, in whose preparation has participated a team of six experts, coordinated by professors Víctor Lapuente and Elena Costas. The presentation, which took place by videoconference, was attended by the chairman of the Círculo, John de Zulueta, the professor at the University of Gothenburg, Víctor … Continued
If you were asked today what Spain is, you could answer that it represents a splendid combination of economic potential, culture and quality of life. Spain has recorded extraordinary expansion over the past four decades. Its economy has grown by 2.3 times, making it one of the European countries showing the greatest levels of expansion. … Continued
The Círculo de Empresarios and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) have presented the report “Transformation of the Spanish production model” in which they propose 14 priorities for the necessary economic transformation of Spain. After the terrible human and economic impact of Covid-19, “we must take advantage of this crisis,” says the report, “not only to rebuild what has been destroyed, but to … Continued
Prioritize innovation, entrepreneuship and an increase in the size of spanish companies Boost investment in techonology and digitalization Lead the commitment to sustainability Reinfoce industrial added value Development of a new tourism model Transform distribution and logistical activities Lead the transition to new forms of mobility
Historically, global crises have generated fundamental changes in beliefs and social attitudes, in turn, these have led to new policies and regulations. The global market of digital health will reach around €530 Billion in 2025, driven by new technologies and artificial intelligence. The crisis caused by Covid-19 will reconfigure international relations over the next few … Continued
Industry and Services, Spain In April, the General Industrial Turnover Index fell 40.8% year-on-year as a result of the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown measures. This setback is the biggest since reporting began. By sectors, the car industry was the hardest hit (-90.4% year-on-year), followed by the clothing industry (-80%). On the other hand, the … Continued
The OECD forecasts two growth outcomes conditioned by a possible second wave of the virus before the end of the year. Spain tops the table for the countries hardest hit by the economic collapse, with a fall of 14.4% according to pessimistic forecasts. The OECD projects a significant increase in unemployment in 2020, with temporary … Continued
Overview of the economic situation Q2 2020 The Covid-19 crisis has had one of the biggest economic impacts of our recent history The lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus have generated an unprecedented economic standstill. In this context, international organizations (the IMF, OECD, World Bank and European Commission) are forecasting a contraction … Continued
For 2020, the European Commission forecasts a historic drop in GDP in the EU (-7.4% annually). By countries, the biggest decreases will take place in Greece, Italy, Spain and Croatia. Employment forecasts place Greece and Spain with the highest levels of unemployment (19.9% and 18.9%, respectively). The EU public deficit will increase to 8.3% of … Continued
The slump in economic activity as a result of Covid-19 has led to the biggest drop in employment in one month in its history, falling back to 2009 levels. In April, the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, while the average hourly wage worked increased 7.9%, to $ 30.01. By sector, the leisure and hospitality industry … Continued
National Accounts, Spain The lockdown and economic hibernation measures adopted to halt the spread of Covid-19 have contracted GDP by 4.1% in Q1 2020, the worst figure since Q2 2009 (-4.4%). In the domestic demand, the fall in private consumption (–6.7% year-on-year) and investment (-5.5%) stand out against the increase of public spending by 3.6%. … Continued
In 2020, GDP of the main European cities will plunge due to the impact of Covid-19. The contraction will be conditioned by the structural characteristics of each city. By sectors, the service sector, and in particular the hospitality industry, will be hardest hit economically. In cities, GDP growth will be conditioned by their exposure to … Continued
Public deficit, Spain In 2020, the IMF forecasts that Spain’s public deficit will increase to 9.5% of GDP (compared to 2.6% in 2019), against a backdrop of GDP shrinking by 8% yearly. On spending, an increase is expected as a result of the measures approved by the government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, and … Continued