New challenges for European economies THE WAR IN UKRAINE INCREASES UNCERTAINTY AND GENERATES FURTHER GLOBAL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS, EXACERBATING INFLATIONARY PRESSURES FUELLED MAINLY BY HIGHER ENERGY AND OTHER COMMODITY PRICES The European Commission has cut its forecast for EU GDP growth in 2022 by 1.6 pp EU inflation to rise to 6.8% in 2022, 4.3 pp … Continued
Recovery to pre-Covid GDP levels delayed IN A CONTEXT OF UNCERTAINTY AFFECTED BY THE PANDEMIC, INFLATIONARY TENSIONS AND THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE, GDP SLOWS ITS GROWTH AND RECORDS A 0.3% INCREASE IN Q1 22 COMPARED TO Q4 21 Domestic demand remains the engine of growth, although external demand is improving its contribution The Government … Continued
Invasion adds uncertainty to recovery process WAR CONFLICT IN UKRAINE, WITHDRAWAL OF MONETARY AND FISCAL STIMULUS, CHINA’S SLOWDOWN, FINANCIAL MARKET VOLATILITY AND PANDEMIC SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH AND PUT FURTHER UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION In 2022*, existing inflationary pressures since early 2021 will be accentuated After a strong recovery in 2021, global activity slows down in … Continued
Global smart home devices market Revenues from smart home device sales reached nearly $17 billion by 2021 Since 2015, the number of households with smart home systems has multiplied by 2.6 times, a trend that will continue in the coming years The US and China account for 46.5% of total revenues Trends impacting smart home … Continued
Reality of public accounts in Spain THE CORRECTION OF IMBALANCES MUST NOT NECESSARILY BE CARRIED OUT BY INCREASING REVENUES, BUT BY REDUCING PUBLIC SPENDING WITH CRITERIA OF EFFICIENCY AND EFFECTIVENESS Public spending systematically exceeds revenues without evaluation of its efficiency Budget imbalance resulting in persistent public deficits over the last decade and high levels of … Continued
Energy dependency RUSSIA IS ONE OF THE MAIN SUPPLIERS OF GAS AND OIL TO EUROPE More than half of the EU-27 natural gas imports comes from Russia (36%) and Norway (19.7%) Europe, with only 0.1% of global oil reserves, concentrates 44.6% of its imports in Russia and the US Gas prices increase by 80.9% and … Continued
Deterioration of global economic freedom THE ACTIONS TAKEN BY GOVERNMENTS TO TRY TO CURB THE HEALTH IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC HAVE WEAKENED THE LEVEL OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC FREEDOM THE AVERAGE SCORE FOR THE EU-27 COUNTRIES + UK AMOUNTS TO 72.8 POINTS “Moderate” economic freedom in Spain SPAIN, WITH 68.2 POINTS, IS IN THE 41ST POSITION … Continued
Internet access 92% OF EU HOUSEHOLDS HAVE ACCESS TO THE INTERNET, A FIGURE THAT DROPS BY 3 PP IN RURAL AREAS By 2021, internet access in the EU exceeds 90%, reaching 99% in the Netherlands and Luxembourg Since 2011, the percentage of households with internet access has grown by 20 pp in the EU In … Continued
FROM A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISRUPTIVE POINT OF VIEW, THESE ARE THE TEN UNLIKELY EVENTS, BUT WITH GREAT IMPACT ON THE FINANCIAL MARKETS Fossil fuel phase-out plan postponed Facebook stumbles as it seeks to stem the exodus of young people US mid-term election provokes a constitutional crisis US inflation reaches 15% driven by rising wages European … Continued
Sustainability of the pension system at risk THE TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON PENSIONS (PUBLIC AND PRIVATE) HAS INCREASED IN MOST OF OECD ECONOMIES DURING THE LAST TWO DECADES. SPAIN IS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISE, 2.9 PP OF GDP In Spain, this increase is mainly explained by changes in its demographic structure and … Continued
IN 2025, PHARMACEUTICAL SPENDING WILL REACH $1,595 BILLION, 26.1% MORE THAN IN 2020 In 2020, 48% of sales were concentrated in the US. In 2025, the US will maintain its leadership in the pharmaceutical market with nearly 40% of global spending. Spending on medicines increased 46% between 2010 and 2020. SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT DYNAMISM IN THE … Continued
IN 2020 MIGRATION FELL BY 30% AND REACHED ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2003 Migration inflows reached their highest level of the decade in 2016. Immigrants contribute more in taxes than governments spend on them. SPANIARDS MIGRATE MAINLY TO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES In 2019, Colombia, Morocco and Venezuela were the top three nationalities of newcomers The work … Continued
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE EVOLUTION OF GDP AND LABOUR FORCE IN OECD ECONOMIES Emerging economies are at the forefront of the gradually GDP declining for OECD+G20 to 1.5% in 2060. Ageing is the main factor for the overall decline in active population (15-74). ONCE THE RECOVERY HAS TAKEN HOLD, THE WITHDRAWAL OF STIMULI AND THE … Continued
IN 2020, DESPITE THE PANDEMIC, IMPROVEMENTS WERE OBSERVED IN SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS INDICATORS In 2021, Switzerland, Sweden and the US lead the global ranking and that of their regions. China, the one with the highest increase in R&D spending in 2019 among the top 5 investing economies. 60% of companies investing in R&D reported … Continued
EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN AI SINCE 2012, FROM $3 BILLION TO $81.1 BILLION IN 2020. The mobility and health sectors accounted for 40.1% of the investment in 2020. The US is the world’s largest investor, although China’s average amount per investment is higher. In Spain, the proportion of workers equipped with AI … Continued
Evolution of house prices in Spain Despite the strong social and economic impact of the pandemic house prices have shown positive growth rates. During the hardest months of pandemic, the moderation initiated in mid-2018 in the pace of house price advances has accentuated. Why do prices behave in this way? Changing consumer preferences Temporary shortage … Continued
In May 2021, there were 8 Million more unemployed people in the OECD than before the pandemic, and the forecast is that only a few economies will have recovered employment levels prior to the crisis by the end of 2022. The crisis has had a big impact on young people, and those in low-skilled or … Continued
Perception of corruption in the EU-27 A third of the population surveyed in the EU-27 have noticed an increase in corruption over the past 12 months, wich is a problem that affects both the public and private sectors. 62% of Europeans consider governmental corruption a serious issue. Perception of corruption in Spain 23% of those … Continued
One of the megatrends that characterizes the world today is the exodus of people from the countryside to cities. Between 1950 and 2050 the urban population will multiply by 9, reaching 62.5% of the world population, 6.5 pp more than in 2020. North America is the region with most people currently living in urban areas … Continued
In the Index of Economic Freedom published by The Heritage Foundation, 54.4% of the 178 countries analyzed enjoy at least a moderate degree of economic freedom (score above 60 points). Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland and Ireland lead the ranking with scores above 80, putting them in the ranks of the economically “free”. Spain (69,9 … Continued
The economy will be conditioned by the pandemic in 2021 and 2022 Conditioning factors for recovery: evolution of the pandemic and efficiency/efficacy of the vaccines; easing of restrictions on activity and economic agents’ reaction; duration of the support policies and the impact of the European funds; recovery of the tourism sector; spending and household saving … Continued
In Spain, the tax wedge exceeds the OECD average. This gap is mainly explained because Spanish employers support higher social security contributions. By family type, the tax wedge is higher for single workers without children than for married couples with children.
The pandemic and the measures to prevent the spread of the virus have altered household money management behavior. Savings shot up in Q2 2020 as a result of the strict lockdown in response to the pandemic. Spanish families increase their savings way above those of German ones in times of crisis. Private consumption decreased mainly out … Continued
In 2020, Covid-19 caused an annual decrease in mobility servicices revenue of 52.3% (-51.7% worldwide). In 2021, an upturn of 58.3% is expected, conditioned by the epidemiological evolution and progress in the vaccination program. Mobility services include personal transport solutions that are different from those that involve the use of an owned vehicle such as … Continued
The European Union (EU) response to the economic and social impact of the pandemic has been rapid and robust. The European Recovery and Resilience Facility (Next Generation EU) is an important step in the European construction process, most notably in the design and implementation of common fiscal policy elements. The efficient allocation of the funds … Continued
Since Q1 2020, Covid-19 cases have spread all over the world, but particularly in Europe and North America. Within Europe, Spain is in 6th place in terms of the number of cases per million inhabitants, and in 7th position for the number of deaths per million inhabitants. The vaccination process is advancing in Europe, headed … Continued
In 2020, tourism in Spain collapsed as a result of Covid-19. Nineteen million foreign tourists arrived in Spain, 77% less than in 2019 when the sector had been registering several years of record-breaking levels. In 2020, the leading source market for tourism to Spain was France with 3.9 million tourists, compared to 3.2 million from … Continued
CEOs say they are laser-focused on these top internal strategies… Accelerate pace of digital transformation Improve Innovation Modify business model Lower costs Streamline processes … and internal obstacules in 2021 COVID-19 related disruptions lack of quality talent Resource constraints relative to business needs Lack of an innovation Regulation
Unlikely events that could take place and have an impact on world growth Amazon “buys” Cyprus Amazon relocates its headquarters to Cyprus, where the tax policy is more favorable. In light of this, the EU reacts to the movements of big tech and calls on member countries to strengthen fiscal harmonization. Germany bails out France … Continued
In Spain, there is a high level of negative correlation between youth unemployment and the level of vocational training (VT). In 2019, 30.2% of Spaniards between the ages of 25 and 34 dropped out of education after completing compulsory-level secondary school, compared to 15% in the EU. In the past 7 years, students enroled in … Continued
The sees the economic scenario forecast by the government on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on activity and revenue as optimistic. COVID-19 has obliged the government to increase spending significantly, with forecasts that the structural deficit will reach 5.4% of GDP in 2020. Assuming that part of the exceptional expenditure will remain … Continued
In its autumn perspectives, the European Commission forecasts a 12.4% yearly decrease in GDP for Spain in 2020 (vs. -9.4% in its spring forecast), making it the economy to register the biggest downturn. In 2021, the Spanish economy will grow 5.4%, 1.6pp less than estimated in May, and will not recover production levels prior to … Continued
