Upward revision of GDP evolution in 2023 LOWER ENERGY PRICES, EASING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS, IMPROVED BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND A STRONG LABOR MARKET JUSTIFY THE IMPROVEMENT IN GDP FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH GROWTH RATES REMAIN MODERATE Ireland and Malta will lead growth in 2023. Spain, in 7th position, growing by 1.9% y-o-y, 4 tenths of a pp more than … Continued
Global logistics performance “LOGISTICS IS VITAL TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND TRADE IS, IN TURN, A POWERFUL ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION” (Mona Haddad, WORLD BANK) European dominance in the 2023 global ranking led by Singapore THE RECENT SUPPLY CHAIN CRISIS DID NOT SUBSTANTIALLY ALTER THE LPI PATTERN Average LPI score stable in 2023, … Continued
Global merchandise trade 2022 IN 2022, THE VOLUME OF GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRADE GREW BY 2.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR. IN TERMS OF AVERAGE $ VALUE, IT INCREASED BY 12% TO REACH $25.6 TRILLION The 2.7% increase in volume is lower than expected in Oct. 22 (+3.5%) due to the drop in Q422 The sectors with the highest growth … Continued
Moderate GDP recovery in 2024 GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS HIGHER GROWTH MAINLY DUE TO MODERATION OF INFLATION AND CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER ITS REOPENING The OECD improves its global growth forecast for 2023/24, although growth is lower than forecast before the outbreak of war in Ukraine Global PMIs rebound in early 2023 Improved consumer confidence Slight … Continued
Global economic freedom continues to deteriorate THE RENUNCIATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM IN MANY ECONOMIES CAN UNDERMINE RECOVERY AND SACRIFICE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND LONG-TERM PROSPERITY The overall average score for economic freedom fell by 7 tenths in IEF 23 to its lowest level in two decades According to the Heritage Foundation, “low scores … Continued
Labour productivity in the OECD countries THERE ARE LARGE DISPARITIES IN LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS BETWEEN COUNTRIES, EVEN WITHIN THE OECD AREA In 2021, average labour productivity in the OECD stood at $60.8/hour Most of the countries with the lowest labour productivity in 2000 have since increased it IN 2020, THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON … Continued
Perception of corruption in the public sector 2022 IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT OF UNCERTAINTY, COUNTRIES THAT DO NOT ADDRESS THEIR CORRUPTION PROBLEMS AGGRAVATE THEIR EFFECTS AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEMOCRATIC DECLINE The global average for the degree of corruption in the public sector remains at 43 points out of 100 In the last decade, corruption perception … Continued
Global short- and long-term risks (Global Risks Report 2023) THE RETURN TO THE “NEW NORMAL” AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS QUICKLY INTERRUPTED BY THE OUTBREAK OF WAR IN UKRAINE, WHICH LED TO THE CURRENT FOOD AND ENERGY CRISES Current risks with the greatest potential impact on a global scale More than 2/3 of respondents expect … Continued
FROM A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISRUPTIVE POINT OF VIEW, THESE ARE THE TEN UNLIKELY EVENTS WITH A MAJOR IMPACT ON GLOBAL GROWTH AND FINANCIAL MARKETS (SAXO BANK 2023 OUTRAGEOUS PREDICTIONS ) 1 “Third Stone” billionaire coalition for a new energy system ▲ demand for electricity in the context of digitalization and energy transition → creation of … Continued
Sharp slowdown in global GDP growth in 2023 IN 2023, WORLD GDP WILL SLOW TO 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR, 9 TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT LESS THAN ESTIMATED FOR 2022, WELL BELOW THE RATE FORECAST BEFORE THE WAR. IN 2024, THE INCREASE WILL BE 2.7% Slight recovery in 2024 with real income growth and moderating inflationary pressures … Continued
Ageing conditions the sustainability of the system IN 2050 SPAIN WILL BE THE SECOND COUNTRY IN THE OECD, AFTER JAPAN, WITH THE HIGHEST DEPENDENCY RATIO *, WHICH WILL BE 78.4%, 25.7 PP HIGHER THAN THE OECD AVERAGE The dependency ratio in Spain will increase by 45.6 pp between 2020 and 2050, more than double the … Continued
Forecasts not credible and not able to build confidence UNREALISTIC PERCEPTION OF LATENT RISKS IN A CONTEXT OF HIGH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY Spain will not regain pre-pandemic GDP level until Q1 2024 Structural deficit consolidation FINANCING OF NEW STRUCTURAL EXPENDITURE WITH THE CYCLICAL INCREASE IN REVENUE RESULTING FROM THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON THE … Continued
Global innovation trends REGIONAL INNOVATION GAP PERSISTS BUT SOUTH-EAST ASIA AND EAST ASIA CLOSE THE GAP WITH NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE Switzerland maintains its leadership and the US overtakes Sweden to take second place in the global innovation ranking Spain’s innovation profile SPAIN’S STRENGTHS IN INNOVATION INCLUDE SPENDING ON SOFTWARE (%GDP) AND ENROLMENT IN HIGHER … Continued
Deterioration of the global economic outlook GLOBAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO MODERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2022 AND TO SLOW IN 2023 TO 2.2% High inflation persists for longer than expected FOR THE MAJOR ECONOMIES, INFLATION IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN 3Q22 AND TO DECLINE FROM 4Q22 ONWARDS, BUT TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CENTRAL … Continued
Employment continues to grow despite GDP slowdown THE LABOUR MARKET HAS RECOVERED TO PRE-COVID-19 PANDEMIC LEVELS, BUT PROSPECTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AMID WAR CLOUDS IN UKRAINE Uneven GDP recovery among OECD countries OECD employment returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021, and continued to grow in the first half of 2022 Low-pay industries … Continued
Fears of recession amid high uncertainty (IMF) WAR IN UKRAINE, INFLATION, THE IMPACT OF MONETARY NORMALISATION AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL STIMULUS SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH The inflation scenario worsens with an increase in the forecast of 0.9 pp for 2022/23 compared to Apr. 22 Expected increase in headline core inflation due to expectations unanchoring and … Continued
War slows post-pandemic economic recovery THE IMF FORECASTS GLOBAL GDP GROWTH OF 3.6% IN 2022, 1.3 PP LOWER THAN PRE-WAR ESTIMATE Europe and the US, territories with the largest downward correction in their growth forecasts The war has triggered a humanitarian crisis and a projected 35% drop in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022, with estimated losses … Continued
NATO, a political and military alliance and a transatlantic link NATO’S MAIN TASKS FOCUS ON COLLECTIVE DEFENCE, CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND COOPERATIVE SECURITY NATO, founded in 1949 by 12 countries, currently has 30 members. Finland and Sweden, awaiting the start of the accession process, are among the next countries to join the organisation NATO military personnel … Continued
Persistence of the adverse effects of war over time ENERGY SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS AND PRICE INCREASES DUE TO THE EU IMPORT EMBARGO AND RUSSIA’S EVENTUAL DECISION TO UNILATERALLY CUT OFF SUPPLIES TO EUROPE An embargo on European imports of fossil fuels from Russia would affect all sectors Potential impact of the Russian gas supply cut-off, 2023 … Continued
China’s growth slows due to domestic uncertainty THE “COVID ZERO” POLICY, WITH RESTRICTIONS ON MOBILITY AND LOCKDOWNS IN LARGE CITIES, IMPACTS ON THE CHINESE ECONOMY BY PREVENTING THE RECOVERY OF CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT AND SLOWING DOWN EXPORTS, ITS MAIN ENGINE OF GROWTH GDP growth moderates despite fiscal stimuli Exports decelerate to 3.9% y-o-y in April … Continued
New challenges for European economies THE WAR IN UKRAINE INCREASES UNCERTAINTY AND GENERATES FURTHER GLOBAL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS, EXACERBATING INFLATIONARY PRESSURES FUELLED MAINLY BY HIGHER ENERGY AND OTHER COMMODITY PRICES The European Commission has cut its forecast for EU GDP growth in 2022 by 1.6 pp EU inflation to rise to 6.8% in 2022, 4.3 pp … Continued
Recovery to pre-Covid GDP levels delayed IN A CONTEXT OF UNCERTAINTY AFFECTED BY THE PANDEMIC, INFLATIONARY TENSIONS AND THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE, GDP SLOWS ITS GROWTH AND RECORDS A 0.3% INCREASE IN Q1 22 COMPARED TO Q4 21 Domestic demand remains the engine of growth, although external demand is improving its contribution The Government … Continued
Invasion adds uncertainty to recovery process WAR CONFLICT IN UKRAINE, WITHDRAWAL OF MONETARY AND FISCAL STIMULUS, CHINA’S SLOWDOWN, FINANCIAL MARKET VOLATILITY AND PANDEMIC SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH AND PUT FURTHER UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION In 2022*, existing inflationary pressures since early 2021 will be accentuated After a strong recovery in 2021, global activity slows down in … Continued
Global smart home devices market Revenues from smart home device sales reached nearly $17 billion by 2021 Since 2015, the number of households with smart home systems has multiplied by 2.6 times, a trend that will continue in the coming years The US and China account for 46.5% of total revenues Trends impacting smart home … Continued
Reality of public accounts in Spain THE CORRECTION OF IMBALANCES MUST NOT NECESSARILY BE CARRIED OUT BY INCREASING REVENUES, BUT BY REDUCING PUBLIC SPENDING WITH CRITERIA OF EFFICIENCY AND EFFECTIVENESS Public spending systematically exceeds revenues without evaluation of its efficiency Budget imbalance resulting in persistent public deficits over the last decade and high levels of … Continued
Energy dependency RUSSIA IS ONE OF THE MAIN SUPPLIERS OF GAS AND OIL TO EUROPE More than half of the EU-27 natural gas imports comes from Russia (36%) and Norway (19.7%) Europe, with only 0.1% of global oil reserves, concentrates 44.6% of its imports in Russia and the US Gas prices increase by 80.9% and … Continued
Deterioration of global economic freedom THE ACTIONS TAKEN BY GOVERNMENTS TO TRY TO CURB THE HEALTH IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC HAVE WEAKENED THE LEVEL OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC FREEDOM THE AVERAGE SCORE FOR THE EU-27 COUNTRIES + UK AMOUNTS TO 72.8 POINTS “Moderate” economic freedom in Spain SPAIN, WITH 68.2 POINTS, IS IN THE 41ST POSITION … Continued
Internet access 92% OF EU HOUSEHOLDS HAVE ACCESS TO THE INTERNET, A FIGURE THAT DROPS BY 3 PP IN RURAL AREAS By 2021, internet access in the EU exceeds 90%, reaching 99% in the Netherlands and Luxembourg Since 2011, the percentage of households with internet access has grown by 20 pp in the EU In … Continued
FROM A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISRUPTIVE POINT OF VIEW, THESE ARE THE TEN UNLIKELY EVENTS, BUT WITH GREAT IMPACT ON THE FINANCIAL MARKETS Fossil fuel phase-out plan postponed Facebook stumbles as it seeks to stem the exodus of young people US mid-term election provokes a constitutional crisis US inflation reaches 15% driven by rising wages European … Continued
Sustainability of the pension system at risk THE TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON PENSIONS (PUBLIC AND PRIVATE) HAS INCREASED IN MOST OF OECD ECONOMIES DURING THE LAST TWO DECADES. SPAIN IS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISE, 2.9 PP OF GDP In Spain, this increase is mainly explained by changes in its demographic structure and … Continued
IN 2025, PHARMACEUTICAL SPENDING WILL REACH $1,595 BILLION, 26.1% MORE THAN IN 2020 In 2020, 48% of sales were concentrated in the US. In 2025, the US will maintain its leadership in the pharmaceutical market with nearly 40% of global spending. Spending on medicines increased 46% between 2010 and 2020. SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT DYNAMISM IN THE … Continued
IN 2020 MIGRATION FELL BY 30% AND REACHED ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2003 Migration inflows reached their highest level of the decade in 2016. Immigrants contribute more in taxes than governments spend on them. SPANIARDS MIGRATE MAINLY TO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES In 2019, Colombia, Morocco and Venezuela were the top three nationalities of newcomers The work … Continued
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE EVOLUTION OF GDP AND LABOUR FORCE IN OECD ECONOMIES Emerging economies are at the forefront of the gradually GDP declining for OECD+G20 to 1.5% in 2060. Ageing is the main factor for the overall decline in active population (15-74). ONCE THE RECOVERY HAS TAKEN HOLD, THE WITHDRAWAL OF STIMULI AND THE … Continued