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Unlikely events that could take place and have an impact on world growth Amazon “buys” Cyprus Amazon relocates its headquarters to Cyprus, where the tax policy is more favorable. In light of this, the EU reacts to the movements of big tech and calls on member countries to strengthen fiscal harmonization. Germany bails out France … Continued
In Spain, there is a high level of negative correlation between youth unemployment and the level of vocational training (VT). In 2019, 30.2% of Spaniards between the ages of 25 and 34 dropped out of education after completing compulsory-level secondary school, compared to 15% in the EU. In the past 7 years, students enroled in … Continued
The sees the economic scenario forecast by the government on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on activity and revenue as optimistic. COVID-19 has obliged the government to increase spending significantly, with forecasts that the structural deficit will reach 5.4% of GDP in 2020. Assuming that part of the exceptional expenditure will remain … Continued
In its autumn perspectives, the European Commission forecasts a 12.4% yearly decrease in GDP for Spain in 2020 (vs. -9.4% in its spring forecast), making it the economy to register the biggest downturn. In 2021, the Spanish economy will grow 5.4%, 1.6pp less than estimated in May, and will not recover production levels prior to … Continued
On November 4 and 5, Círculo de Empresarios and Fundación Rafael del Pino held the First Forum on the Global Economy, an initiative that, on an annual basis, is aimed at discussing the situation and prospects of the world economy. The Forum was opened by John de Zulueta and María del Pino, presidents of the two … Continued
Círculo de Empresarios and Fundación Rafael del Pino have launched the I Forum on the Global Economy, an initiative that is aimed to discuss the situation and prospects of the world’s economy. This Forum, which will take place on November 4th and 5th, will be opened by John de Zulueta and María del Pino, presidents of the … Continued
In 2020, the main international organizations forecast a 1.8 yearly growth rate for China, in contrast to significant decreases for the rest of the economies. In 2019, China’s economy surpassed the whole Eurozone countries in terms of GDP size, and it is expected to overtake the US by 2030, according to forecasts by Oxford Economics. … Continued
In 2020, Iceland, Switzerland and Norway are top of the Global Retirement Index which assesses pensioners’ welfare and financial security. Future retirement security could be at risk as a result of the recent situation caused by Covid-19. Five main risks have been identified. Spain drops for the second year consecutively. It currently holds the 32nd … Continued
Switzerland tops the innovation index for the 10th consecutive year as a result of its business adaptation capacity to new technologies. There is a positive correlation between a country’s degree of development and its capacity to innovate. Nowadays, the most important technological clusters in the world are in the US and East Asia. Spain ranks … Continued
We analyze how the pandemic has affected the economies of India and China. In September, there were more than 25 million cases of Coronavirus worldwide (0.3% of the cases in world population). In accumulated terms, the US is the country with the largest number of cases, followed by India. Currently, India is the country with … Continued
Iberian Peninsula countries represent almost 9% of EU GDP and more than 10% of its population. In July, the European Commission forecasted than Spain and Portugal will suffer two of the biggest GDP decreases in the region (-10,9% and 9,8% respectively). Both economies depend on large measure on the service sector, which has been the … Continued
Prepare the economy for rapid response capabilities Reinforce our health and healthcare capabilities Strengthen our education system Maintain a level of manageable indebtedness and a robust capital structure Strengthen our supply chains Create a favorable and stable business environment, guaranteeing judicial security Boost and consolidate public-private partnership models
Círculo de Empresarios has presented the book “How to save liberal democracies”, in whose preparation has participated a team of six experts, coordinated by professors Víctor Lapuente and Elena Costas. The presentation, which took place by videoconference, was attended by the chairman of the Círculo, John de Zulueta, the professor at the University of Gothenburg, Víctor … Continued
The Círculo de Empresarios and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) have presented the report “Transformation of the Spanish production model” in which they propose 14 priorities for the necessary economic transformation of Spain. After the terrible human and economic impact of Covid-19, “we must take advantage of this crisis,” says the report, “not only to rebuild what has been destroyed, but to … Continued
Prioritize innovation, entrepreneuship and an increase in the size of spanish companies Boost investment in techonology and digitalization Lead the commitment to sustainability Reinfoce industrial added value Development of a new tourism model Transform distribution and logistical activities Lead the transition to new forms of mobility
Historically, global crises have generated fundamental changes in beliefs and social attitudes, in turn, these have led to new policies and regulations. The global market of digital health will reach around €530 Billion in 2025, driven by new technologies and artificial intelligence. The crisis caused by Covid-19 will reconfigure international relations over the next few … Continued
The OECD forecasts two growth outcomes conditioned by a possible second wave of the virus before the end of the year. Spain tops the table for the countries hardest hit by the economic collapse, with a fall of 14.4% according to pessimistic forecasts. The OECD projects a significant increase in unemployment in 2020, with temporary … Continued
For 2020, the European Commission forecasts a historic drop in GDP in the EU (-7.4% annually). By countries, the biggest decreases will take place in Greece, Italy, Spain and Croatia. Employment forecasts place Greece and Spain with the highest levels of unemployment (19.9% and 18.9%, respectively). The EU public deficit will increase to 8.3% of … Continued
The slump in economic activity as a result of Covid-19 has led to the biggest drop in employment in one month in its history, falling back to 2009 levels. In April, the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, while the average hourly wage worked increased 7.9%, to $ 30.01. By sector, the leisure and hospitality industry … Continued
In 2020, GDP of the main European cities will plunge due to the impact of Covid-19. The contraction will be conditioned by the structural characteristics of each city. By sectors, the service sector, and in particular the hospitality industry, will be hardest hit economically. In cities, GDP growth will be conditioned by their exposure to … Continued
In 2020, world tourist arrivals will fall by 20% to 30% annually as a result of the impact of the coronavirus. The estimated loss of revenue will be 50% and, in the case of air transport, it will be concentrated in the regions of Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. Spain is one of … Continued
On 9 March 2020, the Dow Jones, along with the other stock market indexes, registeredone of th e biggest ever falls in its history, caused by the impact and uncertainty surrounding the international spread of the coronavirus. As a result of the situation, the authorities have responded with a wide range of monetary and fiscal … Continued
Círculo de Empresarios, together with a wide group of business associations from all over Spain, has published a statement on the latest economic measures adopted by the Government, with an impact on companies, as a consequence of the coronavirus crisis: Despite the herculean efforts of healthcare professionals in the public and private sector, often without … Continued
The figures for active cases and deaths continue to grow relentlessly. This is despite the praiseworthy endeavors of healthcare professionals for whom the various levels of Administration must make every effort to obtain the necessary resources to carry out essential tasks with the least possible risk to their health. With considerable donations of personal protection … Continued
Faced with the economic impact of the coronavirus, central banks have responded with significant interest rate reductions and liquidity provisions, limiting their options for future adjustments. Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks have already significantly lowered their interest rates and increased their balance sheets through bulk asset purchasing programs (QE). Future measures by central … Continued
Germany accounts for 29% of Eurozone GDP and 25% of its population. In the previous decade, its unemployment rate has remained below the average for the Eurozone, reaching its current level of 3.2%. German GDP growth has fluctuated within a range of just 1 pp between 1981 and 2020, in spite of the slowdown that … Continued
On 31st December 2019, China alerted about the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-2019) in Wuhan. The number of infected people has increased significantly, mainly in China. As a result of this outbreak, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast in 2020 between 0.1pp and 0.2pp. China will be the hardest hit economy. In China, … Continued
Brexit materialised on January 31, 2020, entering a transition period to negotiate the future relationship until December 31. Before leaving the EU, the United Kingdom was the 2nd largest economy in the EU, representing 15.2% of European GDP and 12.9% of its population. Moreover, its GDP per capita exceeds the EU average by 11%, and … Continued
The Círculo de Empresarios has appointed Mercedes Pizarro as the new Chief Economist of this business association. She replaces Alicia Coronil, who had held the position since 2013. Mercedes Pizarro Santos (Barcelona, 1972) has a degree in Economics and Business Administration from the University of Barcelona and Abat Oliba CEU. Between 2004 and 2012 she held the … Continued
Even though present society is going through an extraordinary process of transformation and economic growth, it is of the utmost importance to tackle climate change to ensure that such growth is sustainable. In the last 100 years, worldwide CO emissions have increased tenfold, with China and the US emitting the most, According to the Global … Continued
Incidents that describe highly improbable but high economic impact events.
In order to extricate Spain from the political deadlock in which it finds itself, the Círculo de Empresarios, a civil society organization aimed at furthering the common good, is calling upon the acting President of the Government, as well as the leaders of the PP and Ciudadanos, to begin discussions aimed at reaching a pact … Continued
Population ageing is a global phenomenon that predominantly affects the most advanced countries due to the declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Spain is one of the longest-lived and most ageing countries in the world. It also has one of the lowest fertility rates (1.25) of the OECD countries, with a negative natural change … Continued