The pace of global economic recovery slows down IN ADDITION TO THE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE PANDEMIC, THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR AND GEO-ECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION, THERE ARE CYCLICAL CAUSES: TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY, WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL AID IN THE CONTEXT OF HIGH DEBT AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS SIGNS THAT THE POST-PANDEMIC REBOUND IS FADING … Decline in … Continued
Global snapshot of talent competitiveness THE IMD WORLD TALENT RANKING (WTR) ASSESSES THE STATUS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SKILLS NECESSARY FOR COMPANIES AND THE ECONOMY TO CREATE VALUE IN THE LONG TERM. ANALYZES A SET OF INDICATORS THAT MEASURE THE DEVELOPMENT, RETENTION AND ATTRACTION OF HIGHLY SKILLED NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LABOUR The ranking is led by … Continued
Global economic situation The global recovery after the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is slowing down with significant asymmetries between economic sectors and regions. The IMF forecasts a slowdown in global growth from an estimated 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2024, 8 tenths of a percentage point lower than the … Continued
Loss of dynamism in European growth GLOBAL CONTEXT OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION REVISES DOWNWARD EU AND EUROZONE GROWTH FOR 2023 AND 2024 European growth 2.4 pp below global growth in 2023, with slight acceleration in 2024 After being the European economy that fell the most in 2020, … Continued
Weakness of the German economy THE ECONOMY SUFFERED A TECHNICAL RECESSION DURING THE WINTER MAINLY DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY CRISIS GDP fell by 0.3% quarterly in January-March 2023, although it will regain positive rates in the second half of the year Deterioration of business expectations For 2023 as a whole, a y-o-y … Continued
Social Security Affiliates Spain Manufacturing and services PMIs Spain International tourist arrivals Spain German goods trade balance Public accounts Italy Forecasts Latin America
Trends in global competitiveness 2023 THE MACROECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS UNDERLYING THE SO-CALLED “POLYCRISIS” ARE ALREADY RESHAPING THE COMPETITIVENESS LANDSCAPE IN 2023 AT MULTIPLE LEVELS Competitiveness ranking led by three economies that, apart from being small, have strong and efficient institutions North America leads in economic performance, while Eastern Asia and Western Europe outperform in … Continued
Solid growth of the Portuguese economy GDP IS CURRENTLY 4.3% ABOVE ITS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL (+2.2% IN THE EUROZONE). THE STRENGTH OF TOURISM AND FUNDS FROM THE EU’S RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE MECHANISM ARE ACTING AS GROWTH DRIVERS After +1.6% quartery in Q1 23 (+2.5% y-o-y), +2.7% y-o-y growth is expected in 2023 Containment of headline inflation … Continued
Industrial Production Index Creation of commercial companies Housing Price Index Forecasts USA 2023 and 2024 Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI Eurozone industrial producer prices
China faces mild recovery after pandemic AFTER A STRONG 1st QUARTER IN WHICH CHINA RECORDED A STRONG REBOUND AFTER COVID RESTRICTIONS EASED, ECONOMIC RECOVERY ENTERS A SLOWER 2ND STAGE GDP rebounds in 2023 to 5.5% before slowing down by 9 tenths in 2024 2023 marked by the containment of commodity and food prices and a … Continued
Upward revision of GDP evolution in 2023 LOWER ENERGY PRICES, EASING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS, IMPROVED BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND A STRONG LABOR MARKET JUSTIFY THE IMPROVEMENT IN GDP FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH GROWTH RATES REMAIN MODERATE Ireland and Malta will lead growth in 2023. Spain, in 7th position, growing by 1.9% y-o-y, 4 tenths of a pp more than … Continued
Industrial Production Index Spain Tourism in Spain Evolution of 1 year interest rates Eurozone Investor Confidence Index CPI in Germany US inflation expectations
Financial accounts Spanish economy Growth and inflation forecasts Spain Retail trade volume US CPI Global foreign direct investment Artificial intelligence (AI) index 2023
Moderate GDP recovery in 2024 GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS HIGHER GROWTH MAINLY DUE TO MODERATION OF INFLATION AND CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER ITS REOPENING The OECD improves its global growth forecast for 2023/24, although growth is lower than forecast before the outbreak of war in Ukraine Global PMIs rebound in early 2023 Improved consumer confidence Slight … Continued
Trade balance Spain Housing market Spain CPI Spain Crude oil imports Germany CPI US Interest rates
Global economic freedom continues to deteriorate THE RENUNCIATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM IN MANY ECONOMIES CAN UNDERMINE RECOVERY AND SACRIFICE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND LONG-TERM PROSPERITY The overall average score for economic freedom fell by 7 tenths in IEF 23 to its lowest level in two decades According to the Heritage Foundation, “low scores … Continued
Labour productivity in the OECD countries THERE ARE LARGE DISPARITIES IN LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS BETWEEN COUNTRIES, EVEN WITHIN THE OECD AREA In 2021, average labour productivity in the OECD stood at $60.8/hour Most of the countries with the lowest labour productivity in 2000 have since increased it IN 2020, THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON … Continued
Summary Global economic situation Throughout 2022 , the global economy lost momentum with the onset of adverse shocks and as downside risks materialized, affecting households, businesses and financial markets. The health and economic impact of the war in Ukraine was compounded by high inflationary pressures, the tightening of monetary policy by the major Central Banks, … Continued
Foreign trade of goods Spain Population in Spain 2022 Doubtful loans private sector Spain Global international tourist arrivals Eurozone public debt The world next megacities
Global short- and long-term risks (Global Risks Report 2023) THE RETURN TO THE “NEW NORMAL” AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS QUICKLY INTERRUPTED BY THE OUTBREAK OF WAR IN UKRAINE, WHICH LED TO THE CURRENT FOOD AND ENERGY CRISES Current risks with the greatest potential impact on a global scale More than 2/3 of respondents expect … Continued
FROM A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISRUPTIVE POINT OF VIEW, THESE ARE THE TEN UNLIKELY EVENTS WITH A MAJOR IMPACT ON GLOBAL GROWTH AND FINANCIAL MARKETS (SAXO BANK 2023 OUTRAGEOUS PREDICTIONS ) 1 “Third Stone” billionaire coalition for a new energy system ▲ demand for electricity in the context of digitalization and energy transition → creation of … Continued
Consumer Price Index Spain Corporate and household deposits Spain Economic Sentiment Indicator Spain S&P composite PMI – US and Eurozone Wage Survey – Germany EU natural gas reserves
Sharp slowdown in global GDP growth in 2023 IN 2023, WORLD GDP WILL SLOW TO 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR, 9 TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT LESS THAN ESTIMATED FOR 2022, WELL BELOW THE RATE FORECAST BEFORE THE WAR. IN 2024, THE INCREASE WILL BE 2.7% Slight recovery in 2024 with real income growth and moderating inflationary pressures … Continued
Ageing conditions the sustainability of the system IN 2050 SPAIN WILL BE THE SECOND COUNTRY IN THE OECD, AFTER JAPAN, WITH THE HIGHEST DEPENDENCY RATIO *, WHICH WILL BE 78.4%, 25.7 PP HIGHER THAN THE OECD AVERAGE The dependency ratio in Spain will increase by 45.6 pp between 2020 and 2050, more than double the … Continued
Labour market Spain Consumer Price Index Spanish public debt Energy prices for EU-27 households US manufacturing and services PMI Interest rates
Forecasts not credible and not able to build confidence UNREALISTIC PERCEPTION OF LATENT RISKS IN A CONTEXT OF HIGH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY Spain will not regain pre-pandemic GDP level until Q1 2024 Structural deficit consolidation FINANCING OF NEW STRUCTURAL EXPENDITURE WITH THE CYCLICAL INCREASE IN REVENUE RESULTING FROM THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON THE … Continued
Global innovation trends REGIONAL INNOVATION GAP PERSISTS BUT SOUTH-EAST ASIA AND EAST ASIA CLOSE THE GAP WITH NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE Switzerland maintains its leadership and the US overtakes Sweden to take second place in the global innovation ranking Spain’s innovation profile SPAIN’S STRENGTHS IN INNOVATION INCLUDE SPENDING ON SOFTWARE (%GDP) AND ENROLMENT IN HIGHER … Continued
Labour market Spain Bank of Spain economic forecasts International tourist arrivals to Spain Manufacturing and services PMI Eurozone Trade in goods and services US Global Digital Competitiveness Index 2022
Deterioration of the global economic outlook GLOBAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO MODERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2022 AND TO SLOW IN 2023 TO 2.2% High inflation persists for longer than expected FOR THE MAJOR ECONOMIES, INFLATION IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN 3Q22 AND TO DECLINE FROM 4Q22 ONWARDS, BUT TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CENTRAL … Continued
Employment continues to grow despite GDP slowdown THE LABOUR MARKET HAS RECOVERED TO PRE-COVID-19 PANDEMIC LEVELS, BUT PROSPECTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AMID WAR CLOUDS IN UKRAINE Uneven GDP recovery among OECD countries OECD employment returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021, and continued to grow in the first half of 2022 Low-pay industries … Continued
Global economic situation The world is facing a context of high geopolitical and economic uncertainty that may lead to a foreseeable simultaneous contraction in the main areas. The post pandemic economic recovery has been disrupted by the direct consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its collateral effects on energy prices and supplies. The … Continued
Fears of recession amid high uncertainty (IMF) WAR IN UKRAINE, INFLATION, THE IMPACT OF MONETARY NORMALISATION AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL STIMULUS SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH The inflation scenario worsens with an increase in the forecast of 0.9 pp for 2022/23 compared to Apr. 22 Expected increase in headline core inflation due to expectations unanchoring and … Continued
War slows post-pandemic economic recovery THE IMF FORECASTS GLOBAL GDP GROWTH OF 3.6% IN 2022, 1.3 PP LOWER THAN PRE-WAR ESTIMATE Europe and the US, territories with the largest downward correction in their growth forecasts The war has triggered a humanitarian crisis and a projected 35% drop in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022, with estimated losses … Continued