Forecasts not credible and not able to build confidence
UNREALISTIC PERCEPTION OF LATENT RISKS IN A CONTEXT OF HIGH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY
Spain will not regain pre-pandemic GDP level until Q1 2024
Structural deficit consolidation
FINANCING OF NEW STRUCTURAL EXPENDITURE WITH THE CYCLICAL INCREASE IN REVENUE RESULTING FROM THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON THE NOMINAL TAX BASES OF THE MAIN TAXES
The structural deficit will increase by 8 tenths of a percentage point to -4.3% in 2023 compared to 2022
The high level of public debt limits the room for fiscal policy margin
The estimate of government revenue in 2023 is based on an underestimated collection in 2022
Concerns about the upward dynamic of public spending
Only 11.8% of consolidated expenditure is allocated to economic actions in 2023
Assessment by the Círculo de Empresarios
Fiscal policy → prudent and rigorous, without short-termism and discretionality for electioneering motives
Exceptional measures → selective, temporary and targeted at vulnerable groups
Effective and efficient fiscal policy → public expenditure assessment
Credible path of government deficit and debt ▼ in the medium term
Transparency and legal certainty, especially for businesses
Certainty in the implementation of Next Generation EU funds
Improving the efficiency of the tax system + ▲ tax bases