Global economic situation
The world is facing a context of high geopolitical and economic uncertainty that may lead to a foreseeable simultaneous contraction in the main areas. The post pandemic economic recovery has been disrupted by the direct consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its collateral effects on energy prices and supplies. The persistence of some risks and the materialization of other latent risks would turn the slowdown into a recession. Of particular note are the high inflation rates caused by the increase in the price of energy and food raw materials, and their transmission to the rest of the consumption basket, as well as by the continuous tensions in the supply chains. Also, if the systematic interruption of Russian natural gas supplies to Europe becomes effective, the impact on European economies will be significant and could trigger a global energy crisis. Finally, it cannot be ruled out that a disruption of grain exports from Ukraine and Russia could lead to a food crisis.
In this environment of generalized inflation, major central banks have begun to normalize their policies, reducing sovereign debt purchases and raising interest rates. This monetary tightening will have a negative impact on the recovery, but it is necessary, especially where inflation expectations are beginning to unanchor . Without action, there may be second round effects with upward spirals requiring further monetary tightening, further damaging growth and employment.
The main international organizations have revised their global growth forecasts downwards. Thus, in June, the OECD lowered its forecasts for 2022 to 3 % year on year (vs. 4.5 % estimated in December 2021 ), and in July, the IMF updated its April forecasts, reducing growth for 2022 by 4 tenths of a percentage point to 3.2