New challenges for European economies
THE WAR IN UKRAINE INCREASES UNCERTAINTY AND GENERATES FURTHER GLOBAL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS, EXACERBATING INFLATIONARY PRESSURES FUELLED MAINLY BY HIGHER ENERGY AND OTHER COMMODITY PRICES
The European Commission has cut its forecast for EU GDP growth in 2022 by 1.6 pp
EU inflation to rise to 6.8% in 2022, 4.3 pp higher than forecast in autumn 2021
In 2022, Ireland and Portugal will lead growth. Spain, in 4th place, will grow by 4% y-o-y
Spain will record one of the highest HICP rates (6.3%) among the large EU economies in 2022
Private consumption will drive growth in 2022
Improvements in the labour market and public accounts
DESPITE THE ADVERSE CONTEXT, JOB CREATION IS STRENGTHENING AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES CONTINUE TO FALL. GOVERNMENT DEFICITS IN THE EU ECONOMIES ARE BEING CORRECTED
EU growth in employment will be 1.2% y-o-y in 2022 and the unemployment rate will fall by 3 tenths to 6.7% of labour force
The government deficit in the EU will be reduced by 1.1 pp in 2022*, but the level of debt will remain high