New challenges for European economies THE WAR IN UKRAINE INCREASES UNCERTAINTY AND GENERATES FURTHER GLOBAL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS, EXACERBATING INFLATIONARY PRESSURES FUELLED MAINLY BY HIGHER ENERGY AND OTHER COMMODITY PRICES The European Commission has cut its forecast for EU GDP growth in 2022 by 1.6 pp EU inflation to rise to 6.8% in 2022, 4.3 pp … Continued
International tourist arrivals in Spain 1-year Euribor evolution Industrial Production Index Spain US labour market Gasoline prices around the world Eurozone Investor Confidence Index
Recovery to pre-Covid GDP levels delayed IN A CONTEXT OF UNCERTAINTY AFFECTED BY THE PANDEMIC, INFLATIONARY TENSIONS AND THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE, GDP SLOWS ITS GROWTH AND RECORDS A 0.3% INCREASE IN Q1 22 COMPARED TO Q4 21 Domestic demand remains the engine of growth, although external demand is improving its contribution The Government … Continued
Invasion adds uncertainty to recovery process WAR CONFLICT IN UKRAINE, WITHDRAWAL OF MONETARY AND FISCAL STIMULUS, CHINA’S SLOWDOWN, FINANCIAL MARKET VOLATILITY AND PANDEMIC SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH AND PUT FURTHER UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION In 2022*, existing inflationary pressures since early 2021 will be accentuated After a strong recovery in 2021, global activity slows down in … Continued
Economy in times of uncertainty april 2022 de Círculo de Empresarios Global economic situation In mid February, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables allowed us to speak of recovery. The remission of the pandemic, vaccination efforts, expansionary economic policies and favorable financial conditions justified the IMF’s January … Continued
Global smart home devices market Revenues from smart home device sales reached nearly $17 billion by 2021 Since 2015, the number of households with smart home systems has multiplied by 2.6 times, a trend that will continue in the coming years The US and China account for 46.5% of total revenues Trends impacting smart home … Continued
Reality of public accounts in Spain THE CORRECTION OF IMBALANCES MUST NOT NECESSARILY BE CARRIED OUT BY INCREASING REVENUES, BUT BY REDUCING PUBLIC SPENDING WITH CRITERIA OF EFFICIENCY AND EFFECTIVENESS Public spending systematically exceeds revenues without evaluation of its efficiency Budget imbalance resulting in persistent public deficits over the last decade and high levels of … Continued
CPI IBEX 35 and other global stock indices Mortgage forclosures GDP and employment in Europe Energy prices Fall of the ruble
Energy dependency RUSSIA IS ONE OF THE MAIN SUPPLIERS OF GAS AND OIL TO EUROPE More than half of the EU-27 natural gas imports comes from Russia (36%) and Norway (19.7%) Europe, with only 0.1% of global oil reserves, concentrates 44.6% of its imports in Russia and the US Gas prices increase by 80.9% and … Continued
Deterioration of global economic freedom THE ACTIONS TAKEN BY GOVERNMENTS TO TRY TO CURB THE HEALTH IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC HAVE WEAKENED THE LEVEL OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC FREEDOM THE AVERAGE SCORE FOR THE EU-27 COUNTRIES + UK AMOUNTS TO 72.8 POINTS “Moderate” economic freedom in Spain SPAIN, WITH 68.2 POINTS, IS IN THE 41ST POSITION … Continued
Growth forecasts Minimum wage Government bond yields Europe Social contributions US Balance of goods and services China PMI
Internet access 92% OF EU HOUSEHOLDS HAVE ACCESS TO THE INTERNET, A FIGURE THAT DROPS BY 3 PP IN RURAL AREAS By 2021, internet access in the EU exceeds 90%, reaching 99% in the Netherlands and Luxembourg Since 2011, the percentage of households with internet access has grown by 20 pp in the EU In … Continued
FROM A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISRUPTIVE POINT OF VIEW, THESE ARE THE TEN UNLIKELY EVENTS, BUT WITH GREAT IMPACT ON THE FINANCIAL MARKETS Fossil fuel phase-out plan postponed Facebook stumbles as it seeks to stem the exodus of young people US mid-term election provokes a constitutional crisis US inflation reaches 15% driven by rising wages European … Continued
Industrial Production Index Treasury Bills Corporate and household debt Eurozone Unemployment US CPI China CPI
Sustainability of the pension system at risk THE TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON PENSIONS (PUBLIC AND PRIVATE) HAS INCREASED IN MOST OF OECD ECONOMIES DURING THE LAST TWO DECADES. SPAIN IS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISE, 2.9 PP OF GDP In Spain, this increase is mainly explained by changes in its demographic structure and … Continued
Global economic situation The world economy’s recovery continues although its sustainability isn’t assured in a context of pandemic outbreaks and uncertainty about its future evolution, disruptions in supply chains and inflationary pressures on raw materials and energy. The differing vaccination rates and the support policies applied in each country to lessen the pandemic’s impact have … Continued
An efficient, sustainable pensions system must respect a series of fundamental principles: the contributory principle (proportionality between contributions and receipts), fairness, intergenerational solidarity, adequacy and economic balance. In the case of Spain, these principles were defined within a context of broad consensus between political parties in what would become known as the Toledo Pact. Although … Continued
Reforms relating to the labour market are among the urgent structural changes needed to boost competitiveness and, in consequence, economic growth, the creation of quality employment and social well-being. It is with good reason that these have been identified as essential by European Institutions within the framework of the Recovery Plan for Europe, such that … Continued
IN 2025, PHARMACEUTICAL SPENDING WILL REACH $1,595 BILLION, 26.1% MORE THAN IN 2020 In 2020, 48% of sales were concentrated in the US. In 2025, the US will maintain its leadership in the pharmaceutical market with nearly 40% of global spending. Spending on medicines increased 46% between 2010 and 2020. SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT DYNAMISM IN THE … Continued
Consumer Price Index Home sales Trade balance Economic forecasts Euro area Sales for retail US China Industrial Production Index
IN 2020 MIGRATION FELL BY 30% AND REACHED ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2003 Migration inflows reached their highest level of the decade in 2016. Immigrants contribute more in taxes than governments spend on them. SPANIARDS MIGRATE MAINLY TO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES In 2019, Colombia, Morocco and Venezuela were the top three nationalities of newcomers The work … Continued
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE EVOLUTION OF GDP AND LABOUR FORCE IN OECD ECONOMIES Emerging economies are at the forefront of the gradually GDP declining for OECD+G20 to 1.5% in 2060. Ageing is the main factor for the overall decline in active population (15-74). ONCE THE RECOVERY HAS TAKEN HOLD, THE WITHDRAWAL OF STIMULI AND THE … Continued
Trade balance Electricity prices in Spain Treasury Auction Eurozone current account US Industrial Production Economic indicators China
IN 2020, DESPITE THE PANDEMIC, IMPROVEMENTS WERE OBSERVED IN SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS INDICATORS In 2021, Switzerland, Sweden and the US lead the global ranking and that of their regions. China, the one with the highest increase in R&D spending in 2019 among the top 5 investing economies. 60% of companies investing in R&D reported … Continued
EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN AI SINCE 2012, FROM $3 BILLION TO $81.1 BILLION IN 2020. The mobility and health sectors accounted for 40.1% of the investment in 2020. The US is the world’s largest investor, although China’s average amount per investment is higher. In Spain, the proportion of workers equipped with AI … Continued
International air passengers Spain’s medium and long term debt Trade balance Jan.-Jul. 21 Eurozone and US CPI Economic forecasts China’s Industrial Production Index
Evolution of house prices in Spain Despite the strong social and economic impact of the pandemic house prices have shown positive growth rates. During the hardest months of pandemic, the moderation initiated in mid-2018 in the pace of house price advances has accentuated. Why do prices behave in this way? Changing consumer preferences Temporary shortage … Continued
Labour Force Survey Q2 2021 Economic forecasts for Spain 2021-22 Public Administrations debt May 2021 Public accounts in the Eurozone Q1 2021 Improvement of PMI on both sides of the Atlantic Foreign Direct Investment Position US 2020
In May 2021, there were 8 Million more unemployed people in the OECD than before the pandemic, and the forecast is that only a few economies will have recovered employment levels prior to the crisis by the end of 2022. The crisis has had a big impact on young people, and those in low-skilled or … Continued
Perception of corruption in the EU-27 A third of the population surveyed in the EU-27 have noticed an increase in corruption over the past 12 months, wich is a problem that affects both the public and private sectors. 62% of Europeans consider governmental corruption a serious issue. Perception of corruption in Spain 23% of those … Continued
Summary The global economic situation The pandemic caused by Covid 19 and the subsequent health and economic impact led to a 3.3% fall in global GDP in 2020 with China being the only major economy to register positive growth (2.3%). After a year of the pandemic, a high level of uncertainty remains about how the … Continued
In 2021 , Spain fell three positions to 39 th out of 64 countries analysed , its worst position since 2014 . A significant deterioration in the economic performance indicators (from 31 st to 42 nd) and governmental efficiency (from 44 th to 49 th). The average GMW increase in 2021 is 3% with a … Continued
One of the megatrends that characterizes the world today is the exodus of people from the countryside to cities. Between 1950 and 2050 the urban population will multiply by 9, reaching 62.5% of the world population, 6.5 pp more than in 2020. North America is the region with most people currently living in urban areas … Continued