Invasion adds uncertainty to recovery process
WAR CONFLICT IN UKRAINE, WITHDRAWAL OF MONETARY AND FISCAL STIMULUS, CHINA’S SLOWDOWN, FINANCIAL MARKET VOLATILITY AND PANDEMIC SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH AND PUT FURTHER UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION
In 2022*, existing inflationary pressures since early 2021 will be accentuated
After a strong recovery in 2021, global activity slows down in Q1 2022*
Spain does not recover pre-pandemic GDP level until 2023
THE IMF LOWERS ITS FORECAST FOR SPANISH GDP GROWTH BY 1 PP IN 2022* TO 4.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR. IN 2023*, GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO 3.3%
In 2022*, Spanish GDP is set to grow the most in the Eurozone, after registering the biggest fall in 2020
With inflation of 9.8% in Mar. 22, the IMF forecasts 2022* to close with an average of 5.3% (= Eurozone)
Unemployment will fall by 1.4 pp in 2022* to 13.4%, 6.1 pp above the Eurozone average (7.3%)
The IMF expects the government deficit to fall by 1.7 pp to 5.3% in 2022*, with debt at 116.4%