In 2020, world tourist arrivals will fall by 20% to 30% annually as a result of the impact of the coronavirus. The estimated loss of revenue will be 50% and, in the case of air transport, it will be concentrated in the regions of Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. Spain is one of … Continued
On 9 March 2020, the Dow Jones, along with the other stock market indexes, registeredone of th e biggest ever falls in its history, caused by the impact and uncertainty surrounding the international spread of the coronavirus. As a result of the situation, the authorities have responded with a wide range of monetary and fiscal … Continued
Círculo de Empresarios, together with a wide group of business associations from all over Spain, has published a statement on the latest economic measures adopted by the Government, with an impact on companies, as a consequence of the coronavirus crisis: Despite the herculean efforts of healthcare professionals in the public and private sector, often without … Continued
The figures for active cases and deaths continue to grow relentlessly. This is despite the praiseworthy endeavors of healthcare professionals for whom the various levels of Administration must make every effort to obtain the necessary resources to carry out essential tasks with the least possible risk to their health. With considerable donations of personal protection … Continued
Coronavirus impact, Spain According to CEPYME, the stagnation of the Spanish economy1 due to the coronavirus will slow down private consumption with a direct impact on GDP of 0.9% (or 1.7% if indirect effects are taken into consideration), and a possible loss of 313,692 jobs. By company size, small and medium-size enterprises will be the … Continued
Faced with the economic impact of the coronavirus, central banks have responded with significant interest rate reductions and liquidity provisions, limiting their options for future adjustments. Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks have already significantly lowered their interest rates and increased their balance sheets through bulk asset purchasing programs (QE). Future measures by central … Continued
Germany accounts for 29% of Eurozone GDP and 25% of its population. In the previous decade, its unemployment rate has remained below the average for the Eurozone, reaching its current level of 3.2%. German GDP growth has fluctuated within a range of just 1 pp between 1981 and 2020, in spite of the slowdown that … Continued
Financing, Spain In H2 2019, growth in lending to households and non-financial companies diminished compared with 2018. This is mainly explained by the gloomy economic outlook and the slight tightening of loan standards, although the financing costs remained at fairly moderate levels. In the case of households, bank loans rose on average by 0.2% year-on-year, … Continued
On 31st December 2019, China alerted about the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-2019) in Wuhan. The number of infected people has increased significantly, mainly in China. As a result of this outbreak, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast in 2020 between 0.1pp and 0.2pp. China will be the hardest hit economy. In China, … Continued
Brexit materialised on January 31, 2020, entering a transition period to negotiate the future relationship until December 31. Before leaving the EU, the United Kingdom was the 2nd largest economy in the EU, representing 15.2% of European GDP and 12.9% of its population. Moreover, its GDP per capita exceeds the EU average by 11%, and … Continued
Forecasts, Spain Against the backdrop of the current synchronised global economic slowdown, the main national and international organisations forecast growth of between 1.9% and 2% annually in 2019 for the Spanish economy. Additionally, by 2020, the Funcas Consensus forecasts that growth will slow down to 1.6%. This rate will be based mainly on the positive … Continued
Contemporary society is undergoing extraordinary transformation with major consequences for the energy sector – a key industry with respect to socio-economic progress. Global GDP is forecast to double by 2050 and the world’s population will reach 9.8 billion. Given this context, it is essential to tackle climate change and environmental protection, promoting the efficient and … Continued
Overview of the economic situation Q4 2019 The main international organisations ( IMF, OECD, World Bank, and European Commission) warn of a global economy in a synchronised slowdown against the backdrop of mounting uncertainty and new geopolitical risks Thus, the second half of 2019 has been marked by the outbreak of social protests and institutional … Continued
Incidents that describe highly improbable but high economic impact events.
Bank of Spain forecasts The Bank of Spain forecasts that the Spanish economy will embark on a gradual path of deceleration until 2022, and therefore maintains its 2% and 1.7% annual growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, respectively. GDP growth rests on the back of positive evolution of domestic demand owing to the healthy wealth … Continued
Population ageing is a global phenomenon that predominantly affects the most advanced countries due to the declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Spain is one of the longest-lived and most ageing countries in the world. It also has one of the lowest fertility rates (1.25) of the OECD countries, with a negative natural change … Continued
From the uncertainty and the global economic slowdown, to the trade tensions and the evolution of the raw materials prices, all of which undermine the growth of Latin America, with forecasts in 2019 pointing towards an economic stagnation (0.2% annual GDP growth). The growth forecasts for the main economies of the region have been revised … Continued
Currently, the economic growth and progress of countries is not only supported by structural factors such as the demographic pattern or productivity improvement, but also in new disruptive forces such as digitization, climate change, or populism. From the Top 5 countries that are ranked in the Bloomberg Drivers & Disrupters Report, Sweden, Denmark, and Australia … Continued
GDP, Spain The European Commission has reduced the previous growth forecasts of the Spanish economy from 2.3% to 1.9% in 2019 and from 1.9% to 1.5% in 2020. The downwardly revised new forecasts are mainly explained by the revision of the historical series of the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) and the moderation of the … Continued
Economic slowdown In August, Spain recorded the third largest economic slowdown among OECD ountries, after Ireland and Slovenia. Specifically, the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) decreased by 0.22 points to 98.58 and has been below 100 points1 for 12 months now. In turn, the rate at which the Spanish economy is slowing down has doubled that of … Continued
Growth forecasts The Bank of Spain has revised down its growth forecast for the Spanish economy to 2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, which is slightly lower than that provided by the Government and the Funcas consensus (2.2 % in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020). The main causes that explain this downward forecast are the … Continued
Companies are evolving all the time: they grow; split off into smaller parts; acquire and divest; innovate products, processes, and services; adopt new technologies; and engage differently with their customers and employees. And so it has been for centuries. But today, companies are grappling with fundamental paradigm shifts. Disruptive forces are rendering company and industry-wide … Continued
Pension expense, Spain In August, the payroll of Social Security contributory pensions in Spain increased by 5.03% per year, reaching 9.68 billion euros per month. Between January and August, it increased at a rate of 6.8% year-on-year, compared with 3.8% in 2018 and 3% in 2017, and 4.5pp above the forecasted growth for the Spanish … Continued
National accounts, Spain In Q1 2019, GDP increased by 2.4% year-onyear (0.1pp more than the previous quarter). This evolution is mainly on the back of domestic demand contribution (2.2pp), despite it reporting a lower dynamism compared to Q4 2018 (2.5pp): • Business investment rose by 4.7%, which is 0.3pp more than in Q4 2018. • … Continued
Growth forecasts, Spain For 2019, the Bank of Spain has raised its growth forecasts to 2.4%, up by 0.2pp than in March, given the favourable business investments and the positive contribution of the external demand, mainly due to the lower propensity to import. In addition, the Spanish economy grows on the back of a favourable … Continued
Overview of Pespectives on Global and Spanish economy Q2-2019 The main international organisations (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.) continue to downgrade their growth expectations in light of the new geopolitical and economic scenario. Q1 2019 has been marked by the darkening economic outlook, the waning confidence of the private sector, and the mounting global uncertainty, … Continued
