Perspectives on the Spanish and global economies Q2 2020. Quarterly Report

Overview of the economic situation Q2 2020

The Covid-19 crisis has had one of the biggest economic impacts of our recent history The lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus have generated an unprecedented economic standstill. In this context, international organizations (the IMF, OECD, World Bank and European Commission) are forecasting a contraction of GDP of around 3 annually for 2020 a decrease of world trade higher than that of 2008 a breakdown of numerous value and supply chains globally, and a record increase of unemployment among many other things. At the same time, it is expected that the spread of the virus will be contained in the second half of 2020 and activity will gradually restart.

The economic impact of Covid-19 in the first months of 2020 has been evident in advanced economies (Europe and US), as a result of being the main focal points for the spread of the virus. On top of the standstill some countries economic stimulus packages are limited as a result of the scarce room for maneuver available to them (very low interest rates and high levels of public debt). US the country with the greatest number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the world, has seen the longest period of expansion in its history come to
an end with a decrease in GDP forecast to be above 7 annually. In the Eurozone, a sharper decrease of GDP is expected, with an expansive response by the ECB and one involving the launch of fiscal stimulus packages by authorities somewhat later.

In emerging economies the impact of the coronavirus is also having a considerable effect and in some countries, a certain acceleration of the spread of the virus is taking place (in Brazil and Russia). This situation, together with the tightening of financial conditions and the collapse of external demand could lead to substantial macroeconomic imbalances (especially in economies that have a high level of foreign debt).


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