Quarterly Report. Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q3-2020

Economic situation summary

The uncertainty surrounding the spread of Covid 19 is significantly conditioning economic agents’ expectations for the coming years In this context, most international organizations (the IMF, OECD, World Bank and European Commission) project a contraction of GDP above 3 yearly for 2020 and warn of risks such as rising unemployment and a possible spike in inflation above 2 in some economies, and a future increase of debt as a result of the fiscal and monetary stimulus packages That said, these organizations also point out that without these expansionary measures, the economic recession would have been a lot worse.

In developed countries the gradual reactivation of the economy began in May with the easing of movement restrictions to contain the spread of the virus In the US the Fed improved its growth forecasts, envisioning a smaller decrease in GDP 3 4 yearly vs 6 5 previously), and revised its monetary policy goals with a more direct monitoring on the job creation objective In the Eurozone economic sentiment improved as the ECB continued its monetary stimulus plan, and the European Commission finalized details of a European recovery fund of 750 000 million.

In most emerging markets the spread of the virus continues to lower the expectations of economic agents, in some cases intensifying the structural risks to these economies (debt sustainability, unemployment In India and Brazil two of the countries most affected by the pandemic, GDP is forecast to contract in 2020 by 10 2 and 6 5 yearly and respectively In China the curve representing new cases seems to be under control, and economic activity has rebounded strongly in the second half of 2020 creating a V shaped recovery.


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