Public deficit, Spain

In 2020, the IMF forecasts that Spain’s public deficit will increase to 9.5% of GDP (compared to 2.6% in 2019), against a backdrop of GDP shrinking by 8% yearly.

On spending, an increase is expected as a result of the measures approved by the government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, and welfare benefits. Regarding revenue, there will be a significant fall as a result of the economic standstill. On the other hand, public debt will increase to 113% of GDP, 18pp higher than in 2019.

Forecasts for 2021, place the deficit at 6.5% of GDP, and the debt at 115% of GDP, with a rebound in growth of 4.3% yearly.


Hospitality industry, Spain

In 2019, the hospitality industry represented 6.2% of GDP and 8.7% of total employment (around 1.7 million people); and its annual turnover rose to €124 billion in 2018.

According to EY and Bain & Company, due to the lockdown imposed to combat COVID-19, in 2020, there could be
employment losses in the region of 25% (350,000-360,000 jobs). At the same time, 680,000 additional jobs are at risk, and turnover could fall by 40% (€49-€52 billion).

In light of this, VAT revenue from the sector could decrease by between €4.9-€5.2 billion). At the same time, social spending on unemployment benefits could increase by €3.5 billion.

The need for sector financing, without support measures for an increase in liquidity, could increase by between €15-16 billion.


HICP, Spain

In March, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) continued its downward trend, reaching 0.1% year-on-year, 1.2pp less than in March 2019. This is partly explained by the decrease in the price of fuel, electricity and package tours.

Since November 2018, inflation has been below Eurozone levels, registering a differential of 0.5pp in March.


IMF growth forecasts

The IMF, in its spring forecast, projects a 3% yearly contraction of global GDP as a result of the impact of COVID-19. This forecast is 6.3pp lower than the one in January, when the organization forecast a limited impact from coronavirus in the region of 0.1 and 0.2 pp on world GDP growth.

In advanced economies, a greater fall in GDP is forecast of 6.1% yearly, in contrast to the 1.6% increase forecasted in January. The biggest downturns will take place in Italy and Spain (-9.1% and -8% yearly, respectively).

In emerging economies, the reduction in growth perspectives has been smaller (-1% compared to 4.4% in January). The biggest setbacks will be in Mexico and South Africa (-6.6% and -5.8% respectively). In contrast, growth is forecast in India (1.9% yearly) and China (1.2% yearly).

In light of this, it is forecasted that the greatest impact will take place in the first half of 2020. In 2021, increases in world GDP will bounce back to 5.8% yearly, conditioned by the future results of the efforts to contain the spread of the pandemic.




Trade in goods, China

In March, the development Chinese foreign rade of goods improved market expectations, although it remained at low levels.

Exports fell by 6.6% yearly (compared to forecasts of -14%), to $185.15 billion (1.6% of GDP). Imports fell by $0.9% (compared to forecasts of -9.8%), to $165.25 billion (1.4% of GDP). As a result of this, China registered a trade surplus of $19.9 billion (0.2% of GDP).

These figures show a certain relative improvement, but the future of Chinese trading will be conditioned by foreign market developments, currently affected significantly by COVID-19.


Recibe nuestras noticias.

Círculo de Empresarios usará la información que usted proporcione en este formulario para estar en contacto con usted y enviarle actualizaciones sobre publicaciones, eventos y noticias del Círculo de Empresarios. Por favor, háganos saber todos los medios por los cuales le gustaría saber de nosotros:

Puede cambiar de opinión en cualquier momento haciendo clic en el enlace desuscribir que hay en el pie de página de cualquier correo electrónico que reciba de nuestra parte, o poniéndose en contacto con nosotros al Trataremos su información con respeto. Para obtener más información acerca de nuestras prácticas de privacidad, visite nuestro sitio web Al hacer clic a continuación, acepta que podamos procesar su información de acuerdo con estos términos.

We use Mailchimp as our marketing platform. By clicking below to subscribe, you acknowledge that your information will be transferred to Mailchimp for processing. Learn more about Mailchimp’s privacy practices here.

Uso de cookies

Este sitio web utiliza cookies para que usted tenga la mejor experiencia de usuario. Si continúa navegando está dando su consentimiento para la aceptación de las mencionadas cookies y la aceptación de nuestra política de cookies, pinche el enlace para mayor información.

Aviso de cookies