Economic forecasts, Spain The Bank of Spain is considering two scenarios on the future evolution of GDP depending on how the Covid-19 pandemic develops. In scenario 11, GDP is forecast to fall 10.5% in 2020, and will increase 7.3% in 2021. In scenario 22, the forecasts are worse, with a fall of 12.6% in 2020, … Continued
Economic sentiment, Spain In August, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Spain registered a fall of 2.5 points compared to July, reaching 88.1 points. This places Spain as the EU country where confidence levels have fallen the most. The reason for this was the worsening of the data for construction (-5.9 points compared to July), … Continued
Economic outlook, Spain In 2020, the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) forecasts that Spanish GDP will be between -10.1% in the best-case scenario (compared to a preliminary -8.9%) and -12.4% (compared to -11.7%) in the worst case. This will depend on the duration of the pandemic, and its capacity for the recovery of economic … Continued
Industry and Services, Spain In April, the General Industrial Turnover Index fell 40.8% year-on-year as a result of the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown measures. This setback is the biggest since reporting began. By sectors, the car industry was the hardest hit (-90.4% year-on-year), followed by the clothing industry (-80%). On the other hand, the … Continued
National Accounts, Spain The lockdown and economic hibernation measures adopted to halt the spread of Covid-19 have contracted GDP by 4.1% in Q1 2020, the worst figure since Q2 2009 (-4.4%). In the domestic demand, the fall in private consumption (–6.7% year-on-year) and investment (-5.5%) stand out against the increase of public spending by 3.6%. … Continued
Public deficit, Spain In 2020, the IMF forecasts that Spain’s public deficit will increase to 9.5% of GDP (compared to 2.6% in 2019), against a backdrop of GDP shrinking by 8% yearly. On spending, an increase is expected as a result of the measures approved by the government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, and … Continued
Coronavirus impact, Spain According to CEPYME, the stagnation of the Spanish economy1 due to the coronavirus will slow down private consumption with a direct impact on GDP of 0.9% (or 1.7% if indirect effects are taken into consideration), and a possible loss of 313,692 jobs. By company size, small and medium-size enterprises will be the … Continued
Financing, Spain In H2 2019, growth in lending to households and non-financial companies diminished compared with 2018. This is mainly explained by the gloomy economic outlook and the slight tightening of loan standards, although the financing costs remained at fairly moderate levels. In the case of households, bank loans rose on average by 0.2% year-on-year, … Continued
Forecasts, Spain Against the backdrop of the current synchronised global economic slowdown, the main national and international organisations forecast growth of between 1.9% and 2% annually in 2019 for the Spanish economy. Additionally, by 2020, the Funcas Consensus forecasts that growth will slow down to 1.6%. This rate will be based mainly on the positive … Continued
Bank of Spain forecasts The Bank of Spain forecasts that the Spanish economy will embark on a gradual path of deceleration until 2022, and therefore maintains its 2% and 1.7% annual growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, respectively. GDP growth rests on the back of positive evolution of domestic demand owing to the healthy wealth … Continued
GDP, Spain The European Commission has reduced the previous growth forecasts of the Spanish economy from 2.3% to 1.9% in 2019 and from 1.9% to 1.5% in 2020. The downwardly revised new forecasts are mainly explained by the revision of the historical series of the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) and the moderation of the … Continued
Economic slowdown In August, Spain recorded the third largest economic slowdown among OECD ountries, after Ireland and Slovenia. Specifically, the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) decreased by 0.22 points to 98.58 and has been below 100 points1 for 12 months now. In turn, the rate at which the Spanish economy is slowing down has doubled that of … Continued
Growth forecasts The Bank of Spain has revised down its growth forecast for the Spanish economy to 2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, which is slightly lower than that provided by the Government and the Funcas consensus (2.2 % in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020). The main causes that explain this downward forecast are the … Continued
Pension expense, Spain In August, the payroll of Social Security contributory pensions in Spain increased by 5.03% per year, reaching 9.68 billion euros per month. Between January and August, it increased at a rate of 6.8% year-on-year, compared with 3.8% in 2018 and 3% in 2017, and 4.5pp above the forecasted growth for the Spanish … Continued
National accounts, Spain In Q1 2019, GDP increased by 2.4% year-onyear (0.1pp more than the previous quarter). This evolution is mainly on the back of domestic demand contribution (2.2pp), despite it reporting a lower dynamism compared to Q4 2018 (2.5pp): • Business investment rose by 4.7%, which is 0.3pp more than in Q4 2018. • … Continued
Growth forecasts, Spain For 2019, the Bank of Spain has raised its growth forecasts to 2.4%, up by 0.2pp than in March, given the favourable business investments and the positive contribution of the external demand, mainly due to the lower propensity to import. In addition, the Spanish economy grows on the back of a favourable … Continued
Growth Q1 2019 Spain In Q1 2019, GDP grew by 0.7% quarter-onquarter, its biggest progress since the end of 2017, standing at 2.4% year-on-year, 1.2 pp above the Eurozone average. The contribution of domestic demand to year-on-year growth reduced by 0.3 pp to stand at 2.2 pp, the lowest since Q4 2016. By components: • … Continued
Industrial production Spain The Industrial Production Index, after rising by 2.7% in January year-on-year, declined by 0.3% in February, due to the contraction of the production of the energy sector (-6.15%), of the durable consumer goods (-2.4%) and intermediate goods (-0.5%). By Autonomous Community, the industrial production increased in Castilla-La Mancha (5.1%), Aragon (3.4%) and Canary … Continued
Public accounts In January, the debt of public administrations reached €1.17 trillion, reporting a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, above the growth of the Spanish economy (2.4% in Q4 2018). Currently, the debt-to-GDP ratio is 97.4%, 2pp over the target set for 2019 (95.4% of GDP). Whereas, BBVA Research forecasts a public deficit of 2.7%* of … Continued
Debt of Public Administrations In 2018, the total closing balance at year end of the debt of the public administrations as a whole was €1.17 trillion, recording an increase of 2.3% YoY (€26.5bn). Thus, public debt reached 97% of GDP, one-tenth more than the objective established in the General State Budget PGE 2018. By levels … Continued
Quarterly GDP (INE and AIReF) In Q3 2018, Spain’s GDP grew by 2.4% yearon- year (-0.1pp than in Q2 2018), with a contribution of 2.8 points by domestic demand and, for the fifth consecutive quarter, a negative contribution by the external sector, of 0.4 points. In Q4 2018, AIReF maintains its quarterly growth forecast at … Continued
Growth forecasts In the current context of deceleration of the global economy, the main international organisations have lowered their growth forecasts for Spain. The European Commission and the OECD agree that the Spanish economy will grow 2.6% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, below the IMF estimate (2.7% and 2.2%, respectively). For its part, the … Continued
GDP growth In Q3 2018, the year-on-year growth of Spain’s GDP remained stable at 2.5% (0.6% compared with Q2 2018), with a 3pp contribution to growth by domestic demand, and for the fifth consecutive quarter, a negative contribution by the external sector (-0.5pp). The Spanish economy grows with a difference of eight-tenths (0.8) above the … Continued
Signs of slowdown set in for the Spanish economy • GDP In Q2 2018, the Spanish economy expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, one-tenth less than in Q1, and 2.7% year-on-year, after narrowly exceeding 3% in the last three years. This evolution is explained by the deceleration in private consumption (+0.2% vs 0.6% average in 2017) and by … Continued
Economic growth According to BBVA Research forecasts, Spain’s annual growth will be 2.9% in 2018 (0.4 pp more than the previous estimate). This development is mainly based on a 2.6% annual increase in private consumption, explained in part by the good performance of employment and the increase in real disposable income (2% per year). In contrast, … Continued
Economy at a glance june 2018 Circulo de Empresarios from Círculo de Empresarios
Preliminary Quarterly GDP In Q1 2018, the Spanish economy grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining the rate of advance of the last two quarters. This evolution continues to be supported by the dynamism of domestic demand, by the improvement of financial conditions and the labour market, and also by the positive contribution of the external sector … Continued
Economic Growth In Q4 2017, the Spanish economy grew by 3.1% year-on-year, reaching a nominal GDP of €1.16 trillion, and retains a favourable gap from the Eurozone average (2.7%). The domestic demand had a contribution of 3.2 points to this growth, 0.2pp more than in Q3 2017, while the foreign sector declined to -0.1 points, … Continued
Así está… the economy february 2018 Círculo de Empresarios from Círculo de Empresarios
Asi está the economy January 2018 Circulo de Empresarios from Círculo de Empresarios
SPAIN National Accounts (INE) In Q3 2017, the Spanish GDP recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.1%. It is worth noting the growth of domestic demand (2.7 points vs. 2.3 in Q2), while external demand shrank from 0.8 points in Q2 to 0.4 in Q3. Looking at the individual components of domestic demand, the final consumption … Continued
