Outlook for growth
The Bank of Spain has upped by eight-tenths of a point its outlook for GDP growth for 2015: up to 2.8%, thanks mainly to the correction of imbalances and the improve-ment in the macro-financial climate of the Spanish economy. Other reasons for the rise:
- A drop in the price of crude oil, which has resulted in greater disposable household income, and
- The depreciation of the euro, which favors exports.
For its part, the Funcas consensus predicts growth of 2.6% for 2015, a higher figure than that of the European Commission (2.3%) and the Spanish government (2.4%).
The growth in GDP will come principally from domestic demand, with a rise in private consumption of 2.9% and of investment in construction of 2.8%. The contribution of the external sector will be negligible.
For 2016, analysts maintain their prediction for growth in GDP of 2.6% and foresee an increase in domestic demand of 2.5% (investment in construction will accelerate to 3.8%).
With the predicted improvement in GDP, the consensus is for growth in employment (2.3% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016) and a drop in unemployment (to 22.5% in 2015 and 20.9% in 2016).