Global short- and long-term risks (Global Risks Report 2024)
In the next two years, 30% of those surveyed foresee a turbulent and stormy global environment, rising to 63% by 2034
4 systemic elements of the global landscape over the next decade
- Climate change → Trajectories relating to global warming and its impact on Earth systems
- Demographic bifurcation→ Changes in the size, growth and structure of populations around the world
- Technological acceleration → Development of emerging technologies
- Geostrategic changes → Evolution of concentration and sources of geopolitical power
CURRENT AND SHORT TERM (2 YEARS)
In 2024, the main risk is extreme weather, after being the hottest summer in the northern hemisphere in 2023 in history
Over a 2-year horizon, misinformation climbs 15 places to 1st place in the risk ranking compared to 2023
Other risks highlighted in 2024 include economic downturn (33%), disruptions in supply chains for critical goods and resources (25%) or food (18%), escalation/outbreak of armed conflicts between states (25%) and attacks on critical infrastructure (19%)
Risks related to misinformation/disinformation
- Disrupt electoral processes in several economies over the next two years (India, EU, US, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, South Africa, Russia)
- Deepen polarized opinions, potentially triggering civil unrest and clashes
- Repression and erosion of rights when the authorities try to combat it
LONG TERM (10 YEARS)
The global risk landscape is deteriorating over the next decade, with environmental and technological risks dominating
On a 10-year horizon: enters the Top 10 “adverse outcomes of AI technologies” from 29th place in the short term
Out of the Top 10 “lack of economic opportunities”