Moderate GDP recovery in 2024
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS HIGHER GROWTH MAINLY DUE TO MODERATION OF INFLATION AND CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER ITS REOPENING
The OECD improves its global growth forecast for 2023/24, although growth is lower than forecast before the outbreak of war in Ukraine
Global PMIs rebound in early 2023
Improved consumer confidence
Slight recovery of GDP growth in 2024 in most G20 economies, with India leading the way
Persistence of downside risks to growth
- Geopolitical situation and uncertainty
- Further worsening food security in emerging and developing economies
- Trade tensions and new restrictions
- Fragmentation of global value chains and relocation for greater proximity to the parent company, but with an impact on costs
- Uncertain magnitude and duration of monetary tightening to reduce inflation
- Impact of rising interest rates on underlying financial vulnerabilities (debt levels, risk of loan defaults, …)
- Possible risk of energy supply shortages in Europe
- Volatility of financial markets
Containment of headline inflation, but not core inflation
PRICE INCREASES IN SERVICES AND COST PRESSURES DUE TO TIGHT LABOUR MARKETS NEGATIVELY IMPACT CORE INFLATION
Headline inflation is expected to moderate as energy and other commodity prices decreased
Resistance to downward price declines for services
Downward rigidity in core inflation
Tight labour markets