Growth will slow in the coming years
THE BANK OF SPAIN EXPECTS GDP GROWTH TO CONVERGE TO THE ESTIMATED POTENTIAL GROWTH CAPACITY OF 1.6% IN 2026
Domestic demand will be the main driver of activity
The gradual reduction in inflation continues, which will be 3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025
GDP forecasts – comparative other institutions
Despite the resilience of the labour market and a fall in the unemployment rate, the latter will remain the highest in the EU
Private consumption and investment will drive GDP growth in 2024
Sustainability of public accounts
THE NEED FOR A CREDIBLE AND PRO-GROWTH MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL CONSOLIDATION PLAN FOCUSED ON REDUCING TAX INEFFICIENCIES AND BROADENING THE TAX BASE
Falling deficit but high structural component
The Bank of Spain forecasts a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio, although in volume terms the balance continues to increase
Risks highlighted by the Bank of Spain and also pointed out by the IMF
External
Geopolitical tensions: war conflicts Ukraine, Gaza… and US-China trade tensions
Possible turbulences in the international financial markets ~ evolution of the Chinese real estate market, change in monetary policy expectations on a global scale…
Global slowdown
Geoeconomic fragmentation
▲ world energy prices
Domestic
Uncertainty about the pace of implementation and impact of NGEU funds
Doubts about the capacity of household savings to boost private consumption
Effect of the reactivation of fiscal rules in Europe
▲ unit labour costs faster than expected
Evolution of services, especially tourism services