Overview of the economic situation Q4 2019
The main international organisations ( IMF, OECD, World Bank, and European Commission) warn of a global economy in a synchronised slowdown against the backdrop of mounting uncertainty and new geopolitical risks Thus, the second half of 2019 has been marked by the outbreak of social protests and institutional crises in Hong Kong and some Latin American countries such as Chile, Bolivia, and Colombia Moreover, there are risks and uncertainties associated with the US China trade war and the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU, which, although evolve favourably, still have a significant impact on the global economy.
In the advanced economies signs of nearing the end of the expansion phase of the business cycle persist, among which the most pronounced is the significant deterioration in industry and trade against a backdrop of record low levels of unemployment The US maintains its growth rate around 2 per year, although there is some moderation in consumption, investment, and job creation In the EU, Germany’s industrial weakness has been particularly marked in the automotive sector.
In emerging economies interest rate cuts by most central banks stand out, together with fiscal consolidation processes (Brazil China) However, there still are risks associated with high levels of debt and the evolution of their growth inflation rates.
