Global economic situation
The global recovery after the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is slowing down with significant asymmetries between economic sectors and regions.
The IMF forecasts a slowdown in global growth from an estimated 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2024, 8 tenths of a percentage point lower than the annual average for the period 2000-19. The tightening of monetary policy to control inflationary pressures is already having an effect on economic dynamism, although the restoration of pre-pandemic conditions in supply chains and the good performance of the services sector are acting as positive factors for growth.
Inflation remains high and is eroding household purchasing power. The IMF estimates that it will fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024. The correction of core inflation will be more gradual. Against this backdrop, downside risks to global growth persist. These include renewed inflationary pressures, renewed turbulence in the financial markets in the face of a possible tightening of monetary policies and credit scarcity, a slowdown in the recovery of the Chinese economy, a slowdown in activity in the Eurozone, high levels of sovereign debt, the continuation of the war in Ukraine and geo-economic and strategic uncertainty.
