Labour market, Spain
In June, the number of affiliates to the Social Security system registered a moderate increase of 0.4% year-on-year, to 18,624,337 people.
By sectors, construction experienced the biggest increase at 3.7% month-onmonth, followed by industry (0.7%) and the service sector (0.3%). On the other hand, agriculture fell 3.2%.
In spite of the increase, the figures for the close of June showed a loss of 99,906 Social Security affiliates between June 1st and 30th (-0.5% compared to May) due to the impact of Covid-19, leading to 851,801 job losses since March 13rd.
In June, 1.17 million people came out from the Short-time work schemes, with more than 1.8 million employees remaining in that situation.
Unemployment registered an increase of 0.1% month-on-month in June (0.7% for May 2019), reaching a total of 3,862,883 unemployed people.
Industrial production, Spain
In May, the Industrial Production Index maintained its downward trend with a fall of 24.5% year-on-year. However, the rate was 9.6pp above April rate as a result of the resumption of activity after the economic standstill due to Covid-19.
By type of goods, they all registered year-on-year decreases, with those of consumer durables (-36.5%), capital goods (-36.3%) and intermediate goods (-23.4%) standing out.
By activity types, all have been affected, with the garment sector (-79.5%) and the car industry (-60.6%) suffering the biggest decreases.
In June, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 1 increased 7.8 points with respect to May, reaching 60.7 points. This is the second consecutive month of increases after three months of decreases.
This development can be mostly explained through enhanced expectations (+12.3 points) to 30.9 points and assessment of the current situation (+3.3) to 90.5.
Despite the upturn, the CCI is at levels similar to those of 2013, and below the 100 points registered since June 2019.
Retail sales, Eurozone
In May, retail sales in the Eurozone increased 17.8% month-on-month due to the easing of lockdown measures in most member states. This increase contrasts with falls above 10% in March and April.
In spite of this intense improvement, it is still 6.8% below levels at the start of the year. Among the main economies,
France and Spain remain at 18.4% and 14.2% below levels in January 2019.
On the other hand, Germany and Netherlands have returned to positive levels, with increases of 4.4% and 2.8% respectively.
Economic activity, US
In spite of an increase in cases of Covid-19, economic activity in the US is showing signs of recovery.
In July, the ISM non-manufacturing activity index registered the biggest increase of its history (11.7 points), reaching 57.1 points after the sharp falls of
March and April. Production increased to 66 points and new orders to 61.6. On the other hand, employment activity is still in a downward phase (43.1 points).
The ISM manufacturing activity index rose to 52.6 points, reaching maximum levels of May 2019.
This increase can be explained by the reception of new orders, in spite of the fact that employment activity remains in a phase of contraction.
Tourist industry, UNWTO
The UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization) has warned that the lockdown measures still present in some countries, travel restrictions, reduced consumer purchasing power and low levels of confidence could significantly slow down recovery of the tourism sector.
For 2020, the organization forecasts three scenarios with decreases in accordance with the number of months that international tourism remains disrupted:
– With 4 months of disruption, direct and indirect loses would reach $1.2 trillion (1.5% of World GDP).
– With 8 months of disruption, $2 trillion (2.8% of World GDP).
– With 12 months of disruption, $3.3 trillion (4.2% of World GDP).
By countries, in the most optimistic scenario, emerging economies could experience the biggest GDP decreases, with Jamaica and Thailand (11% and 9% of GDP, respectively) standing out.
For its part, Spain, with estimated losses of $44 billion (3% of GDP), is in 15th place in the list of countries that will be most affected.