Tourism, Spain

Between January and October 2019, tourist arrivals in Spain increased by 1.1% year-onyear, which is 0.5pp more than the increase recorded in the same period last year,
amounting to 74.4 million visitors. Despite this increase, the tourist arrivals from the following main tourist sending countries dropped:

• The United Kingdom (22% of the total international tourist arrivals) → -1.9% year-on-year.

• Germany (13.5% total)→ -1,9% year-onyear.

• France (13.4% total)→ -2.3% year-onyear.

In contrast, the largest increase corresponded to Russia (8.4%) and Portugal (7.1%).

In turn, tourism spending increased by 2.9% year-on-year amounting to €82.2 billion (6.8% of GDP). By geographical distribution, the United Kingdom (19.9% of the total), Germany (12.8%) and France (8.4%) remain the main tourist sending countries, despite German tourists having fallen by 2.3% year-on-year.


Corporate profits

Between January and September 2019, according to the Bank of Spain, the gross value added (GVA) of non-financial companies declined to 0.5% year-on-year, compared with the 3.7% recorded in the same period last year.

Job creation fell to 0.6% year-on-year, which is 1.4pp lower than in the same period of 2018. Even though the percentage of companies that contribute to job destruction is on the rise, new hires with an indefinite employment contract rose by 1.1% year-on-year, and 1.3% fewer people were hired on temporary contracts. As for the wages, they increased by 2.2% year-on-year, which is 0.6pp more than in the first three quarters of 2018.

Likewise, corporate profits plummeted by 44.5% and now account for 20.7% of the GVA, compared with the 52.3% increase recorded between January and September 2018 (31.1% of the GVA).


Labour market, Spain

In November, the number of Social Security affiliates dropped by 53,114 people, its largest decrease in six years, to stand at a total of 19,376,878 contributors. Despite this
reduction, it reports a 2.3% increase yearon- year (+431,254 new affiliates in the last 12 months).

In turn, the number of unemployed increased by 20,525 people compared with October, to a total of 3,198,184. However, when compared on annual terms, 54,683 fewer people are unemployed (1.7% YoY), which is its smallest correction since 2013.


Industry, Eurozone

In November, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI saw a slight recovery to 46.5 points (vs 45.9 points in October), although the figure remains below 50 points* and has been for the past 11 months in the contraction zone.

This evolution is explained by the weakening production and fewer new industrial orders against the backdrop of the global economy in a synchronised slowdown.

By countries, the only Eurozone economies that were in the expansion zone were Greece with 54.1 points (maximum 3 months) and France with 51.7 points (maximum 5 months).

In contrast, among the economies in contraction, the worst expectations remained in Germany and Austria (44.1 and 46 points, respectively).


Services balance, US

Between January and September 2019, the surplus in the US services sector contracted by 10.1% year-on-year ($178.4 billion and 1% of its GDP), compared with the 5.1% increase recorded in the same period of 2018. Specifically, exports of total services stagnated with a growth of 0.5% year-on-year ($623.2 billion), whereas the imports of services remained at 5.5% year-on-year ($ 444.7 billion).

This evolution is mainly explained by cyclical factors such as the depreciation of the dollar and the global economic slowdown, and structural factors such as the fall in export of services to emerging economies. These factors explain a change in trend that contrasts with the average annual increase of 16% in the services sector surplus recorded for the 2004-2015 period.


Global debt

In Q2 2019, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the global debt accumulated by the public administrations, companies and families increased by 3% yearon- year, reaching a new record high of $250.9 billion (320% of world GDP), and forecasted to reach $255 billion by the end of the year. This evolution is mainly explained by the low interest rates of the main central banks.

Since 2009, global debt has increased by 35%, mainly in the Public Administrations (+54%) and the non-financial sector (+42%), which jointly represent $190 billion (76% of the total global debt).


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