The MAB & the MARF
The Alternative Equity Market (MAB)
In 2017, the financing obtained through the MAB by the segment of growth companies reached €112 million (-40% yearly) in 11 operations, with 42 companies already making up this market.
The Alternative Fixed-Income Market (MARF)
During 2017, 29 MARF companies leveraged €3.9 billion in corporate debt, 72.4% more in comparison with the previous year. Specifically, 41 companies have already obtained financing since its launch in 2013.
Women in Work Index
Spain occupiesthe 28th position out of the 33 countries analysed in the Women In Work Index 2018 (PWC). According to the report, closing the gender pay gap could increase average female wages in Spain by 16%*.
Chinese investment
Between January and October 2017, China’s investment abroad has fallen by 41% yearon-year owing to the restrictive policy of Xi Jinping. However, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimates that this scenario is temporary and that the stock of Chinese investment abroad (10% of its GDP) still has to make great strides before catching up to countries such as the US (29%) or Japan (27.6%). Additionally the The Alternative Fixed-Income Market (MARF) During 2017, 29 MARF companies leveraged €3.9 billion in corporate debt, 72.4% more in comparison with the previous year. Specifically, 41 companies have already obtained financing since its launch in 2013. Belt and Road initiative will boost the influence and investment of Chinese companies, especially in the construction and infrastructure sector. In turn, in the China Going Global Investment Index 2017 (EIU), which measures the investment attractiveness of 59 countries to Chinese companies, the emerging economies (Indonesia, Malaysia…) gain ground with respect to previous issues, predominantly due to cumulative progress in the prominence of Asia-Pacific axis.
Trump tariffs
Donald Trump has signed off on a tariff rate of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium, which affects $46 billion of US imports (2% of its total goods imports and 0.2% of its GDP).
China, the world’s largest steel producer (49% of global output), responded by announcing tariffs on 128 US products in response to Trump ($3billion of US imports). On the other hand, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the steel industry accounts for 0.8% of GDP, whereas the sectors that use steel as their primary input for production activities represent 3% of GDP. The response of other countries to this protectionist measure will be detrimental to the US exports volume, mainly due to the loss of competitiveness with long-term consequences on investment and employment (Peterson Institute for International Economics).
The oil market
Not only can the imposition of tariffs provoke a trade war with adverse consequences on transatlantic relations, but it would also slash the forecasts of global oil demand, primarily in the sectors of maritime transport & road haulage. The IMF estimates that in 2018 the world trade will increase by 4.6% and its possible slowdown would alter the expectations of the price of crude oil, in an environment in which the US, thanks to shale oil, has managed to increase its production as a result of the positive evolution of Permian Basin.
US Yield curve
Since 1980, all phases of the recession in the US have been preceded by an inversion of the yield curve (negative slope).
Currently, after 105 consecutive months of economic expansion in the US and with the normalisation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year curve has narrowed to 50-60 basis points below its historical average (80 basis points).
However, according to the Bank of Spain, the reason for the flattening of the yield curve since the end of 2016 may be caused by other factors not related to US macroeconomic developments such as Quantitative Easing or the low risk of longterm inflation.
