Financing sources
Between 2010 and 2015, the non-financial companies on the IBEX 35 reduced their debts with credit institutions by 39.8%, from 138 billion euros to 83 billion euros. In terms of balance sheet structure, bank financing (% financial liabilities) for these companies went from 53 to 36.5%.
Likewise, fixed income financing (corporate debt) increased by 23% to 115 billion euros.
Entrepreneurial Dynamism
In 2016, the annual pace of business creation was 30% more than 2009.
Nevertheless, the levels of the past year are still 1.4 times lower than the figures reached in the pre-crisis period.
Corporate dinamysm
According to Deloitte, the most notable perspectives for 2017 are:
- 71% of the companies plan to increase their billing.
- 32% estimate that number of their permanent contracts will rise.
- 63% expect that the Spanish economy will improve.
Spain’s external sector
In 2016, exports of goods increased 1.7% to a record 254.53 billion euros (23% of GDP), for the second lowest trade deficit since 1997 (-18.754 billion).
Moreover, the number of exporting firms was 148,794 (123,128 in 2011).
Investment in UK
Spanish investment in the UK is principally in the financial sector.
In 2015, stock FDI in this sector reached 16.6 billion euros (1.54% of GDP) followed by telecommunications (1.4%) and energy (0.7%).
Oil sector
The degree of compliance with the OPEC agreement (1/3 of global production) of cutting the oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day, was 93%.
The supply reduction, along with expectations for greater demand, increased the price of the barrel by 10 dollars between the end of November 2016 and February 2017 (+20%).
Global Risks
Economic uncertainty has grown because of doubts about the new Administration in the US, the coming elections in several countries in the EU, negotiations about Brexit, a hardening of monetary policy by the Fed, and an economic slowdown in China.
“Shadow banking”
Since 2012, shadow banking (financial operations beyond the reach of regulators) has doubled in size in China and now accounts for 82% of its GDP (150% in the USA).
In the past three years it has increased by 30% as against 10% in the rest of the sorld.
United States
Persistent inflation (+2.5% year-on-year in January), anticipation of a more expansive fiscal policy, and a more conservative stance by the Fed have increased expectations that there will be higher interest rates in 2017.
The Fed estimates 3 hikes and expects to end the year at an interval between 1.25% and 1.75.
