SPAIN
Employment December 2016 (Ministry of Employment and Social Security)
Registered unemployment was reduced by 86,849 persons with respect to November, for a total of 3,702,974 unemployed persons, one of the lowest levels of the past seven years. In year-on-year terms, it dropped by 390,534 (-9.54%), the greatest drop since 1999 and a descent of more than a million people over the past four years (1,145,749).
In December there were 1,699,018 new contracts (+6.5% year-on-year), of which 122,294 were permanent contracts (+13.38%). The average Social Security affiliation was 17,849,055 persons, the best figure since October of 2009, with 68,531 more people than in the previous month and with 540,655 more than a year earlier (+3.12%).
CPI December 2016 (INE)
Inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month, by 1.6% annually (vs. 0.7 in November), the highest rate since July of 2013 (1.8%), principally because of the prices of fuels and energy products.
Public Administration debt November 2016 (Bank of Spain)
The total debt of the Public Administrations dropped for the second consecutive month, by 4.7 billion with respect to October (-0.4%), reaching 1.098 trillion (99% of GDP, as against the objective for 2016 of 99.4%), but still near historic highs.
In spite of this reduction, in year-on-year terms the public debt surpassed that of November 2015 (1.07 trillion euros) by 2.4% (26.3 billion).
Tourist sector 2016
(Ministry of Energy, Tourism and the Digital Agenda)
After seven years of consecutive growth, Spain again set a new record for international tourists, surpassing 75 million for the first time (75.3 million), or 7.2 million more than in 2015 (+9.9%).
Total tourist spending also increased, to 77 billion euros (+8.3% year-on-year), almost 10 billion more than in 2015, and 25 billion above 2011.
Average spending per tourist rose to 1,023 euros (+3.75%), while spending per visitor per day was 138 euros (+6.5%). The main countries sending tourists to Spain between January and November of 2016 were the UK, with 22.5% of the total, France (14.3%) and Germany (14.3%). In spite of
Brexit, the number of British tourists in Spain grew 12.3% with respect to the previous year.
The tourist sector, which now has 2.5 million employees, added 130,000 worker during the past year (+6%).
EUROPE
Unemployment November 2016 (Eurostat)
As in the previous month, unemployment in the Eurozone was stable at 9.8%, the lowest rate since July of 2009. In the case of the EU28, it was 8.3% (vs. 8.4% in October).
CPI December 2016 (Eurostat)
In December the Eurozone also saw increased inflation (1.1% annual, vs. 0.6% in November), basically because of a rise in energy prices (+2.5% vs. -1.1% in November).
INTERNATIONAL
IMF Updating of projections for the world economy (IMF)
The IMF predicts an upturn in global economic activity for 2017 and 2018, especially in emerging and developing markets, which will continue to be the engine of world growth.
The advanced economies will consolidate their economic recovery. In the case of Spain, the IMF has revised upwards its predictions for growth for 2017 and 2018 by 1 and 2 decimal points, respectively, to 2.3% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018.
Among the negative risks for world activity:
- A turn toward isolationist and protectionist policies.
- A deterioration of world financial conditions along with weaknesses in the balance sheets of some Eurozone countries and some emerging economies.
- A resurgence of geopolitical tensions.
- A slowdown in China.
Mexican economy report (OECD)
The recent Economic Survey of Mexico identifies some external risks that could put a brake on its growth in 2017 and 2018:
- A slowdown in world trade.
- Depreciation of the peso because of expectations of a restrictive monetary policy in the US.
- Uncertainty caused by the new Trump administration.
The report argues that Mexico can achieve greater growth if it redirects public spending toward infrastructures, education, health, and the reduction of poverty, which will demand greater reforms.
