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New scenario following Donald Trump’s victory EXTENSION OF THE 2017 PERSONAL TAX CUTS AND HIGHER SPENDING. IN ADDITION, REDUCTION OF IMMIGRATION AND TARGETED TARIFFS ON CHINA, MEXICO, CANADA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION The economy continues to grow at a good pace on the back of solid investment and consumption The US will continue to outpace … Continued
Global growth stable, but at low rates UPWARD REVISION OF GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE US AND EMERGING ASIAN ECONOMIES OFFSET BY DOWNGRADES FOR OTHER ADVANCED ECONOMIES, MAINLY EUROPE, AND THOSE OF THE MIDDLE EAST, CENTRAL ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Global growth will reach 3.2% y-o-y in 2024 and 2025, 5 tenths of a percentage point … Continued
Global innovation trends REGIONAL INNOVATION GAP PERSISTS, ALTHOUGH EMERGING ECONOMIES ARE CLOSING THE GAP Switzerland maintains its leadership in the global innovation ranking The world’s top 5 science and technology clusters are in East Asia: Tokyo-Yokohama (Japan), Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou (China and Hong Kong), Beijing (China), Seoul (Republic of Korea) and Shanghai-Suzhou (China) IN 2023, A … Continued
Slowdown in job creation OECD LABOUR MARKETS HAVE PERFORMED WELL DESPITE ADVERSE SHOCKS IN 2023, BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF SLOWER DYNAMISM Moderate GDP growth with divergences between economies Stronger employment recovery in the Eurozone than in the US compared to pre-Covid19 levels Spain has the highest unemployment rate in the OECD in a context … Continued
Global AI Preparedness Index BASED ON MACRO-STRUCTURAL INDICATORS RANGING FROM COUNTRIES’ DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE, HUMAN CAPITAL AND LABOUR MARKET POLICIES, INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, TO REGULATION AND ETHICS Significant divergence between advanced economies (0.68) and emerging (0.5) and low-income (0.32) countries 7 European countries in the Top 10 Top 10 in each of the 4 dimensions … Continued
Growth will slow in the coming years THE BANK OF SPAIN EXPECTS GDP GROWTH TO CONVERGE TO THE ESTIMATED POTENTIAL GROWTH CAPACITY OF 1.6% IN 2026 Domestic demand will be the main driver of activity The gradual reduction in inflation continues, which will be 3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 GDP forecasts – comparative … Continued
Social Progress in the EU and its regions THE INDEX SCORES FACTORS RELATING TO BASIC NEEDS, WELLBEING AND OPPORTUNITIES. THE NORDIC COUNTRIES CONSISTENTLY PERFORM BETTER THAN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN STATES By country, the highest-ranked countries have higher education and trust and governance as strengths. At the regional level, those with the greatest social progress … Continued
Strength of the US economy AFTER ONE OF THE FASTEST POST-PANDEMIC RECOVERIES, THE ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY IN 2024-25 Investment and private consumption responsible for GDP growth in 2024 There are downside risks due to an increase in geopolitical tensions Resilience of the labour market, despite a slight increase in unemployment Stagnant … Continued
Economic reality and outlook The region accounts for 9.6% of the world’s population and for a quarter of its GDP In 2024, growth will moderate compared to prepandemic level and inflation will average 21.6%, distorted by Turkey (58.4%) Weak growth in the region in 2024 Growth in 2024 weighed down by the weakness of the … Continued
(Miércoles, 24 de abril de 2024) The Círculo de Empresarios has published the document “People-centred healthcare” in which it proposes furthering public-private sector partnerships taking advantage of the strengths of both the public and private spheres, expanding access to medical attention and improving the efficiency and quality of healthcare services. Produced in partnership with EY, the … Continued
(Friday, April 12, 2024) Following a halt to activities owing to two general elections in one year and the subsequent pandemic, the Executives-Parliamentarians Programme (PEP), an initiative promoted by the Círculo de Empresarios, today held the inaugural session of a new phase at the Spanish Parliament (Congreso de los Diputados). The ceremony was presided over … Continued
Economic reality and outlook The region is home to almost 50 percent of the world’s population and accounts for one-third of the world’s GDP Growth slows in 2024, but remains 1.3 pp above the global average All economies show positive growth rates in 2024, with Macao, Cambodia standing out Asia Pacific, the most dynamic region … Continued
(Tuesday, March 19, 2024) Juan María Nin Génova, to date the vice-chairman of the Círculo de Empresarios, has assumed the chairmanship of the business association for the coming three years. He replaces Mr. Manuel Pérez-Sala, who has been appointed honorary chairman by the Board of Directors. The new chairman has appointed Carmen Mateo and Isabel Dutilh, … Continued
Africa, 14% of the world’s population and only 2% of GDP by 2023 ECONOMIC GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, TIGHTENING MONETARY AND FISCAL CONDITIONS, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY ALL POSE UNCERTAINTIES Africa will grow by 2.8% in 2024*, 1.1 pp less than in the pre-pandemic decade 57.8% of the African … Continued
Perception of corruption in the public sector 2023 (CPI) “GLOBAL DECLINE IN JUSTICE AND RULE OF LAW SINCE 2016. THE RISE OF AUTHORITARIANISM IN SOME COUNTRIES CONTRIBUTES TO THIS TREND. EVEN IN DEMOCRATIC CONTEXTS, THE MECHANISMS THAT KEEP GOVERNMENTS IN CHECK HAVE WEAKENED” The countries in the top 25 of the ranking comprise only about … Continued
Global short- and long-term risks (Global Risks Report 2024) In the next two years, 30% of those surveyed foresee a turbulent and stormy global environment, rising to 63% by 2034 4 systemic elements of the global landscape over the next decade Climate change → Trajectories relating to global warming and its impact on Earth systems … Continued
Global radiography of digital competitiveness THE MOST COMPETITIVE ECONOMIES IN THIS AREA ARE CHARACTERIZED BY THE STRENGTH OF DIGITAL TALENT, CULTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE South-West Asia, Pacific and Africa close the gap with more digitally competitive regions Five European countries in the top 10 most digitally advanced, in part because of their regulation of data protection … Continued
Global attraction of venture capital investment COUNTRIES WITH AN ANGLO-SAXON LEGAL TRADITION, WITH STRONG INVESTOR PROTECTION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, FAVOR DEEPER AND MORE LIQUID CAPITAL MARKETS In 2023, the US extends its leadership as the most attractive country, while the gap between the rest of the countries is narrowing Spain profile Spain’s weaknesses focused on … Continued
As a think tank serving society as a whole, Círculo de Empresarios has a duty to warn of the historic drift of our country towards the erosion of ethical, social and economic standards. Over the past 45 years, Spain has achieved the most outstanding progress in terms of politics and social and economic welfare in … Continued
Health system resources in OECD countries ACHIEVING THE BEST HEALTH OUTCOMES DOES NOT DEPEND ONLY ON THE SHEER VOLUME OF RESOURCES AVAILABLE. EFFICIENT USE OF EXPENDITURE AND CONSIDERATION OF HEALTH RISK FACTORS AND BROADER SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH ARE NEEDED In 2022, lower pandemic spending needs and impact of inflation moderate total spending to 9.2% … Continued
Historical levels of migration flows THE INCREASE IN HUMANITARIAN (EXC. UKRAINIAN REFUGEES) AND LABOUR MIGRATION EXPLAINS THE INCREASE IN PERMANENT MIGRATION TO OECD COUNTRIES OF 26% OVER 2021 AND 14% OVER 2019 Record levels of permanent migration to OECD countries in 2022 Of the total in 2022, 21% of migration was for work-related reasons, 36.4% … Continued
The pace of global economic recovery slows down IN ADDITION TO THE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE PANDEMIC, THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR AND GEO-ECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION, THERE ARE CYCLICAL CAUSES: TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY, WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL AID IN THE CONTEXT OF HIGH DEBT AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS SIGNS THAT THE POST-PANDEMIC REBOUND IS FADING … Decline in … Continued
Global snapshot of talent competitiveness THE IMD WORLD TALENT RANKING (WTR) ASSESSES THE STATUS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SKILLS NECESSARY FOR COMPANIES AND THE ECONOMY TO CREATE VALUE IN THE LONG TERM. ANALYZES A SET OF INDICATORS THAT MEASURE THE DEVELOPMENT, RETENTION AND ATTRACTION OF HIGHLY SKILLED NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LABOUR The ranking is led by … Continued
Loss of dynamism in European growth GLOBAL CONTEXT OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION REVISES DOWNWARD EU AND EUROZONE GROWTH FOR 2023 AND 2024 European growth 2.4 pp below global growth in 2023, with slight acceleration in 2024 After being the European economy that fell the most in 2020, … Continued
Weakness of the German economy THE ECONOMY SUFFERED A TECHNICAL RECESSION DURING THE WINTER MAINLY DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY CRISIS GDP fell by 0.3% quarterly in January-March 2023, although it will regain positive rates in the second half of the year Deterioration of business expectations For 2023 as a whole, a y-o-y … Continued
Trends in global competitiveness 2023 THE MACROECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS UNDERLYING THE SO-CALLED “POLYCRISIS” ARE ALREADY RESHAPING THE COMPETITIVENESS LANDSCAPE IN 2023 AT MULTIPLE LEVELS Competitiveness ranking led by three economies that, apart from being small, have strong and efficient institutions North America leads in economic performance, while Eastern Asia and Western Europe outperform in … Continued
Solid growth of the Portuguese economy GDP IS CURRENTLY 4.3% ABOVE ITS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL (+2.2% IN THE EUROZONE). THE STRENGTH OF TOURISM AND FUNDS FROM THE EU’S RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE MECHANISM ARE ACTING AS GROWTH DRIVERS After +1.6% quartery in Q1 23 (+2.5% y-o-y), +2.7% y-o-y growth is expected in 2023 Containment of headline inflation … Continued
China faces mild recovery after pandemic AFTER A STRONG 1st QUARTER IN WHICH CHINA RECORDED A STRONG REBOUND AFTER COVID RESTRICTIONS EASED, ECONOMIC RECOVERY ENTERS A SLOWER 2ND STAGE GDP rebounds in 2023 to 5.5% before slowing down by 9 tenths in 2024 2023 marked by the containment of commodity and food prices and a … Continued
Upward revision of GDP evolution in 2023 LOWER ENERGY PRICES, EASING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS, IMPROVED BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND A STRONG LABOR MARKET JUSTIFY THE IMPROVEMENT IN GDP FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH GROWTH RATES REMAIN MODERATE Ireland and Malta will lead growth in 2023. Spain, in 7th position, growing by 1.9% y-o-y, 4 tenths of a pp more than … Continued
Global logistics performance “LOGISTICS IS VITAL TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND TRADE IS, IN TURN, A POWERFUL ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION” (Mona Haddad, WORLD BANK) European dominance in the 2023 global ranking led by Singapore THE RECENT SUPPLY CHAIN CRISIS DID NOT SUBSTANTIALLY ALTER THE LPI PATTERN Average LPI score stable in 2023, … Continued
Global merchandise trade 2022 IN 2022, THE VOLUME OF GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRADE GREW BY 2.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR. IN TERMS OF AVERAGE $ VALUE, IT INCREASED BY 12% TO REACH $25.6 TRILLION The 2.7% increase in volume is lower than expected in Oct. 22 (+3.5%) due to the drop in Q422 The sectors with the highest growth … Continued
Moderate GDP recovery in 2024 GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS HIGHER GROWTH MAINLY DUE TO MODERATION OF INFLATION AND CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER ITS REOPENING The OECD improves its global growth forecast for 2023/24, although growth is lower than forecast before the outbreak of war in Ukraine Global PMIs rebound in early 2023 Improved consumer confidence Slight … Continued
