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Africa, 14% of the world’s population and only 2% of GDP by 2023 ECONOMIC GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, TIGHTENING MONETARY AND FISCAL CONDITIONS, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY ALL POSE UNCERTAINTIES Africa will grow by 2.8% in 2024*, 1.1 pp less than in the pre-pandemic decade 57.8% of the African … Continued
Perception of corruption in the public sector 2023 (CPI) “GLOBAL DECLINE IN JUSTICE AND RULE OF LAW SINCE 2016. THE RISE OF AUTHORITARIANISM IN SOME COUNTRIES CONTRIBUTES TO THIS TREND. EVEN IN DEMOCRATIC CONTEXTS, THE MECHANISMS THAT KEEP GOVERNMENTS IN CHECK HAVE WEAKENED” The countries in the top 25 of the ranking comprise only about … Continued
Global short- and long-term risks (Global Risks Report 2024) In the next two years, 30% of those surveyed foresee a turbulent and stormy global environment, rising to 63% by 2034 4 systemic elements of the global landscape over the next decade Climate change → Trajectories relating to global warming and its impact on Earth systems … Continued
Global radiography of digital competitiveness THE MOST COMPETITIVE ECONOMIES IN THIS AREA ARE CHARACTERIZED BY THE STRENGTH OF DIGITAL TALENT, CULTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE South-West Asia, Pacific and Africa close the gap with more digitally competitive regions Five European countries in the top 10 most digitally advanced, in part because of their regulation of data protection … Continued
Global attraction of venture capital investment COUNTRIES WITH AN ANGLO-SAXON LEGAL TRADITION, WITH STRONG INVESTOR PROTECTION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, FAVOR DEEPER AND MORE LIQUID CAPITAL MARKETS In 2023, the US extends its leadership as the most attractive country, while the gap between the rest of the countries is narrowing Spain profile Spain’s weaknesses focused on … Continued
As a think tank serving society as a whole, Círculo de Empresarios has a duty to warn of the historic drift of our country towards the erosion of ethical, social and economic standards. Over the past 45 years, Spain has achieved the most outstanding progress in terms of politics and social and economic welfare in … Continued
Health system resources in OECD countries ACHIEVING THE BEST HEALTH OUTCOMES DOES NOT DEPEND ONLY ON THE SHEER VOLUME OF RESOURCES AVAILABLE. EFFICIENT USE OF EXPENDITURE AND CONSIDERATION OF HEALTH RISK FACTORS AND BROADER SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH ARE NEEDED In 2022, lower pandemic spending needs and impact of inflation moderate total spending to 9.2% … Continued
Historical levels of migration flows THE INCREASE IN HUMANITARIAN (EXC. UKRAINIAN REFUGEES) AND LABOUR MIGRATION EXPLAINS THE INCREASE IN PERMANENT MIGRATION TO OECD COUNTRIES OF 26% OVER 2021 AND 14% OVER 2019 Record levels of permanent migration to OECD countries in 2022 Of the total in 2022, 21% of migration was for work-related reasons, 36.4% … Continued
The pace of global economic recovery slows down IN ADDITION TO THE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE PANDEMIC, THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR AND GEO-ECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION, THERE ARE CYCLICAL CAUSES: TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY, WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL AID IN THE CONTEXT OF HIGH DEBT AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS SIGNS THAT THE POST-PANDEMIC REBOUND IS FADING … Decline in … Continued
Global snapshot of talent competitiveness THE IMD WORLD TALENT RANKING (WTR) ASSESSES THE STATUS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SKILLS NECESSARY FOR COMPANIES AND THE ECONOMY TO CREATE VALUE IN THE LONG TERM. ANALYZES A SET OF INDICATORS THAT MEASURE THE DEVELOPMENT, RETENTION AND ATTRACTION OF HIGHLY SKILLED NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LABOUR The ranking is led by … Continued
Loss of dynamism in European growth GLOBAL CONTEXT OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION REVISES DOWNWARD EU AND EUROZONE GROWTH FOR 2023 AND 2024 European growth 2.4 pp below global growth in 2023, with slight acceleration in 2024 After being the European economy that fell the most in 2020, … Continued
Weakness of the German economy THE ECONOMY SUFFERED A TECHNICAL RECESSION DURING THE WINTER MAINLY DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY CRISIS GDP fell by 0.3% quarterly in January-March 2023, although it will regain positive rates in the second half of the year Deterioration of business expectations For 2023 as a whole, a y-o-y … Continued
Trends in global competitiveness 2023 THE MACROECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS UNDERLYING THE SO-CALLED “POLYCRISIS” ARE ALREADY RESHAPING THE COMPETITIVENESS LANDSCAPE IN 2023 AT MULTIPLE LEVELS Competitiveness ranking led by three economies that, apart from being small, have strong and efficient institutions North America leads in economic performance, while Eastern Asia and Western Europe outperform in … Continued
Solid growth of the Portuguese economy GDP IS CURRENTLY 4.3% ABOVE ITS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL (+2.2% IN THE EUROZONE). THE STRENGTH OF TOURISM AND FUNDS FROM THE EU’S RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE MECHANISM ARE ACTING AS GROWTH DRIVERS After +1.6% quartery in Q1 23 (+2.5% y-o-y), +2.7% y-o-y growth is expected in 2023 Containment of headline inflation … Continued
China faces mild recovery after pandemic AFTER A STRONG 1st QUARTER IN WHICH CHINA RECORDED A STRONG REBOUND AFTER COVID RESTRICTIONS EASED, ECONOMIC RECOVERY ENTERS A SLOWER 2ND STAGE GDP rebounds in 2023 to 5.5% before slowing down by 9 tenths in 2024 2023 marked by the containment of commodity and food prices and a … Continued
Upward revision of GDP evolution in 2023 LOWER ENERGY PRICES, EASING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS, IMPROVED BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND A STRONG LABOR MARKET JUSTIFY THE IMPROVEMENT IN GDP FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH GROWTH RATES REMAIN MODERATE Ireland and Malta will lead growth in 2023. Spain, in 7th position, growing by 1.9% y-o-y, 4 tenths of a pp more than … Continued
Global logistics performance “LOGISTICS IS VITAL TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND TRADE IS, IN TURN, A POWERFUL ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION” (Mona Haddad, WORLD BANK) European dominance in the 2023 global ranking led by Singapore THE RECENT SUPPLY CHAIN CRISIS DID NOT SUBSTANTIALLY ALTER THE LPI PATTERN Average LPI score stable in 2023, … Continued
Global merchandise trade 2022 IN 2022, THE VOLUME OF GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRADE GREW BY 2.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR. IN TERMS OF AVERAGE $ VALUE, IT INCREASED BY 12% TO REACH $25.6 TRILLION The 2.7% increase in volume is lower than expected in Oct. 22 (+3.5%) due to the drop in Q422 The sectors with the highest growth … Continued
Moderate GDP recovery in 2024 GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS HIGHER GROWTH MAINLY DUE TO MODERATION OF INFLATION AND CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER ITS REOPENING The OECD improves its global growth forecast for 2023/24, although growth is lower than forecast before the outbreak of war in Ukraine Global PMIs rebound in early 2023 Improved consumer confidence Slight … Continued
Global economic freedom continues to deteriorate THE RENUNCIATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM IN MANY ECONOMIES CAN UNDERMINE RECOVERY AND SACRIFICE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND LONG-TERM PROSPERITY The overall average score for economic freedom fell by 7 tenths in IEF 23 to its lowest level in two decades According to the Heritage Foundation, “low scores … Continued
Labour productivity in the OECD countries THERE ARE LARGE DISPARITIES IN LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS BETWEEN COUNTRIES, EVEN WITHIN THE OECD AREA In 2021, average labour productivity in the OECD stood at $60.8/hour Most of the countries with the lowest labour productivity in 2000 have since increased it IN 2020, THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON … Continued
Perception of corruption in the public sector 2022 IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT OF UNCERTAINTY, COUNTRIES THAT DO NOT ADDRESS THEIR CORRUPTION PROBLEMS AGGRAVATE THEIR EFFECTS AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEMOCRATIC DECLINE The global average for the degree of corruption in the public sector remains at 43 points out of 100 In the last decade, corruption perception … Continued
Global short- and long-term risks (Global Risks Report 2023) THE RETURN TO THE “NEW NORMAL” AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS QUICKLY INTERRUPTED BY THE OUTBREAK OF WAR IN UKRAINE, WHICH LED TO THE CURRENT FOOD AND ENERGY CRISES Current risks with the greatest potential impact on a global scale More than 2/3 of respondents expect … Continued
FROM A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISRUPTIVE POINT OF VIEW, THESE ARE THE TEN UNLIKELY EVENTS WITH A MAJOR IMPACT ON GLOBAL GROWTH AND FINANCIAL MARKETS (SAXO BANK 2023 OUTRAGEOUS PREDICTIONS ) 1 “Third Stone” billionaire coalition for a new energy system ▲ demand for electricity in the context of digitalization and energy transition → creation of … Continued
Sharp slowdown in global GDP growth in 2023 IN 2023, WORLD GDP WILL SLOW TO 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR, 9 TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT LESS THAN ESTIMATED FOR 2022, WELL BELOW THE RATE FORECAST BEFORE THE WAR. IN 2024, THE INCREASE WILL BE 2.7% Slight recovery in 2024 with real income growth and moderating inflationary pressures … Continued
Ageing conditions the sustainability of the system IN 2050 SPAIN WILL BE THE SECOND COUNTRY IN THE OECD, AFTER JAPAN, WITH THE HIGHEST DEPENDENCY RATIO *, WHICH WILL BE 78.4%, 25.7 PP HIGHER THAN THE OECD AVERAGE The dependency ratio in Spain will increase by 45.6 pp between 2020 and 2050, more than double the … Continued
Forecasts not credible and not able to build confidence UNREALISTIC PERCEPTION OF LATENT RISKS IN A CONTEXT OF HIGH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY Spain will not regain pre-pandemic GDP level until Q1 2024 Structural deficit consolidation FINANCING OF NEW STRUCTURAL EXPENDITURE WITH THE CYCLICAL INCREASE IN REVENUE RESULTING FROM THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON THE … Continued
Global innovation trends REGIONAL INNOVATION GAP PERSISTS BUT SOUTH-EAST ASIA AND EAST ASIA CLOSE THE GAP WITH NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE Switzerland maintains its leadership and the US overtakes Sweden to take second place in the global innovation ranking Spain’s innovation profile SPAIN’S STRENGTHS IN INNOVATION INCLUDE SPENDING ON SOFTWARE (%GDP) AND ENROLMENT IN HIGHER … Continued
Deterioration of the global economic outlook GLOBAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO MODERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2022 AND TO SLOW IN 2023 TO 2.2% High inflation persists for longer than expected FOR THE MAJOR ECONOMIES, INFLATION IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN 3Q22 AND TO DECLINE FROM 4Q22 ONWARDS, BUT TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CENTRAL … Continued
Employment continues to grow despite GDP slowdown THE LABOUR MARKET HAS RECOVERED TO PRE-COVID-19 PANDEMIC LEVELS, BUT PROSPECTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AMID WAR CLOUDS IN UKRAINE Uneven GDP recovery among OECD countries OECD employment returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021, and continued to grow in the first half of 2022 Low-pay industries … Continued
Fears of recession amid high uncertainty (IMF) WAR IN UKRAINE, INFLATION, THE IMPACT OF MONETARY NORMALISATION AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FISCAL STIMULUS SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH The inflation scenario worsens with an increase in the forecast of 0.9 pp for 2022/23 compared to Apr. 22 Expected increase in headline core inflation due to expectations unanchoring and … Continued
War slows post-pandemic economic recovery THE IMF FORECASTS GLOBAL GDP GROWTH OF 3.6% IN 2022, 1.3 PP LOWER THAN PRE-WAR ESTIMATE Europe and the US, territories with the largest downward correction in their growth forecasts The war has triggered a humanitarian crisis and a projected 35% drop in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022, with estimated losses … Continued
NATO, a political and military alliance and a transatlantic link NATO’S MAIN TASKS FOCUS ON COLLECTIVE DEFENCE, CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND COOPERATIVE SECURITY NATO, founded in 1949 by 12 countries, currently has 30 members. Finland and Sweden, awaiting the start of the accession process, are among the next countries to join the organisation NATO military personnel … Continued