Economy… at a glance November 2021
Consumer Price Index Home sales Trade balance Economic forecasts Euro area Sales for retail US China Industrial Production Index
Consumer Price Index Home sales Trade balance Economic forecasts Euro area Sales for retail US China Industrial Production Index
IN 2020 MIGRATION FELL BY 30% AND REACHED ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2003 Migration inflows reached their highest level of the decade in 2016. Immigrants contribute more in taxes than governments spend on them. SPANIARDS MIGRATE MAINLY TO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES In 2019, Colombia, Morocco and Venezuela were the top three nationalities of newcomers The work … Continued
Employment in Spain Retail trade indices Manufacturing PMI Spain Manufacturing PMI Eurozone and the US Financial markets Trade balance India
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE EVOLUTION OF GDP AND LABOUR FORCE IN OECD ECONOMIES Emerging economies are at the forefront of the gradually GDP declining for OECD+G20 to 1.5% in 2060. Ageing is the main factor for the overall decline in active population (15-74). ONCE THE RECOVERY HAS TAKEN HOLD, THE WITHDRAWAL OF STIMULI AND THE … Continued
Trade balance Electricity prices in Spain Treasury Auction Eurozone current account US Industrial Production Economic indicators China
IN 2020, DESPITE THE PANDEMIC, IMPROVEMENTS WERE OBSERVED IN SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS INDICATORS In 2021, Switzerland, Sweden and the US lead the global ranking and that of their regions. China, the one with the highest increase in R&D spending in 2019 among the top 5 investing economies. 60% of companies investing in R&D reported … Continued
Employment in Spain (Social Security) New and used housing prices (Sociedad de Tasación) Retail sales in Spain (INE) Eurozone PMIs (IHS Markit) US trade balance (Bureau of Economic Analysis) Investment in cloud computing infrastructure* (IDC)
EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN AI SINCE 2012, FROM $3 BILLION TO $81.1 BILLION IN 2020. The mobility and health sectors accounted for 40.1% of the investment in 2020. The US is the world’s largest investor, although China’s average amount per investment is higher. In Spain, the proportion of workers equipped with AI … Continued
International air passengers Spain’s medium and long term debt Trade balance Jan.-Jul. 21 Eurozone and US CPI Economic forecasts China’s Industrial Production Index
Manufacturing sector PMI Non-financial private sector financing Vehicle production In June vehicle production decreased 18.1% year-on-year and 33.8% compared to June 2019 This can be explained by a lack of microchips since the end of 2020 and the slow level of recovery in Europe (with a fall in exports of 14.9% year-on-year) Sales remain far … Continued
Evolution of house prices in Spain Despite the strong social and economic impact of the pandemic house prices have shown positive growth rates. During the hardest months of pandemic, the moderation initiated in mid-2018 in the pace of house price advances has accentuated. Why do prices behave in this way? Changing consumer preferences Temporary shortage … Continued
Labour Force Survey Q2 2021 Economic forecasts for Spain 2021-22 Public Administrations debt May 2021 Public accounts in the Eurozone Q1 2021 Improvement of PMI on both sides of the Atlantic Foreign Direct Investment Position US 2020
In May 2021, there were 8 Million more unemployed people in the OECD than before the pandemic, and the forecast is that only a few economies will have recovered employment levels prior to the crisis by the end of 2022. The crisis has had a big impact on young people, and those in low-skilled or … Continued
Harmonized Business Confidence Index Company creation and dissolution Insolvency proceedings in Spain In June, insolvencies increased 34% compared to the same month in 2020 when decreed moratoria drastically reduced the filing of insolvency proceedings. Commercial air transport in the EU Wholesale trade sales in the US In May 2021, wholesale trade sales reached $576.45 billion. … Continued
Perception of corruption in the EU-27 A third of the population surveyed in the EU-27 have noticed an increase in corruption over the past 12 months, wich is a problem that affects both the public and private sectors. 62% of Europeans consider governmental corruption a serious issue. Perception of corruption in Spain 23% of those … Continued
Summary The global economic situation The pandemic caused by Covid 19 and the subsequent health and economic impact led to a 3.3% fall in global GDP in 2020 with China being the only major economy to register positive growth (2.3%). After a year of the pandemic, a high level of uncertainty remains about how the … Continued
In 2021 , Spain fell three positions to 39 th out of 64 countries analysed , its worst position since 2014 . A significant deterioration in the economic performance indicators (from 31 st to 42 nd) and governmental efficiency (from 44 th to 49 th). The average GMW increase in 2021 is 3% with a … Continued
One of the megatrends that characterizes the world today is the exodus of people from the countryside to cities. Between 1950 and 2050 the urban population will multiply by 9, reaching 62.5% of the world population, 6.5 pp more than in 2020. North America is the region with most people currently living in urban areas … Continued
Spain’s manufacturing and service sector PMI In May, manufacturing activity registered its highest level of the past 23 years, and service sector activity was the highest since August 2015. Tax revenue from large enterprises and SMEs In April 2021 tax revenue from large enterprises increased 23.7% year on year and that of SMEs by 1.3%. … Continued
In the Index of Economic Freedom published by The Heritage Foundation, 54.4% of the 178 countries analyzed enjoy at least a moderate degree of economic freedom (score above 60 points). Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland and Ireland lead the ranking with scores above 80, putting them in the ranks of the economically “free”. Spain (69,9 … Continued
The economy will be conditioned by the pandemic in 2021 and 2022 Conditioning factors for recovery: evolution of the pandemic and efficiency/efficacy of the vaccines; easing of restrictions on activity and economic agents’ reaction; duration of the support policies and the impact of the European funds; recovery of the tourism sector; spending and household saving … Continued
The tourism sector (INE) In the first quarter of 2021, 1.208.761 international tourists arrived in Spain, 13 million fewer than two years ago when the pandemic still hadn t brought the sector to a standstill. Industrial Production Index (IPI) (INE) By autonomous community, the advances in Navarre (31.2%) and Cantabria (26%) are in contrast with … Continued
In Spain, the tax wedge exceeds the OECD average. This gap is mainly explained because Spanish employers support higher social security contributions. By family type, the tax wedge is higher for single workers without children than for married couples with children.
Labour Force Survey Q1 2021 (INE) In Q1 2021, the loss of 137,500 jobs compared to the Q4 2020 has not implied an increase in the unemployment rate due to the decline of both the active population (-203,400) and the unemployed (-65,800). Compared to the Q1 2020… Industrial Prices Index (IPRI) (INE) Energy and intermediate … Continued
Industrial Production Index (IPI) (INE) By autonomous community, the increases in Cantabria (12,0%) Galicia (4,8%) and Extremadura (4,1%) are in sharp contrast with the decreases in the Balearic Islands (14,0%) and Canary Islands (12,3%) Sales by Large Companies (Tax Agency) In Jan Feb 2021 sales by large companies (with last year s business operations at €6.01 … Continued
In 2020, Covid-19 caused an annual decrease in mobility servicices revenue of 52.3% (-51.7% worldwide). In 2021, an upturn of 58.3% is expected, conditioned by the epidemiological evolution and progress in the vaccination program. Mobility services include personal transport solutions that are different from those that involve the use of an owned vehicle such as … Continued
Labor costs, Spain In Q4 2020, labor costs per worker and month fell -0.1% year-on-year to €2,752.26, a slight decrease against the 8.3% of Q2 2020. By components, salary costs fell 0.7% year-on-year to €2,061.30. “Other costs” grew 1.7%, as a result of the increases in Social Security contributions (1.4% year-on-year to €634.57) and non-wage … Continued
The European Union (EU) response to the economic and social impact of the pandemic has been rapid and robust. The European Recovery and Resilience Facility (Next Generation EU) is an important step in the European construction process, most notably in the design and implementation of common fiscal policy elements. The efficient allocation of the funds … Continued
Since Q1 2020, Covid-19 cases have spread all over the world, but particularly in Europe and North America. Within Europe, Spain is in 6th place in terms of the number of cases per million inhabitants, and in 7th position for the number of deaths per million inhabitants. The vaccination process is advancing in Europe, headed … Continued
Activity indicators Service sector In December, the General Services Sector Turnover Index registered an 8.7% year-on-year contraction, accumulating. This figure has remained in negative territory for the 10th consecutive month, but it has improved compared to November (-12.6%), which indicates a slight recovery of the sector that coincided with the Christmas season. In 2020 as … Continued
In 2020, tourism in Spain collapsed as a result of Covid-19. Nineteen million foreign tourists arrived in Spain, 77% less than in 2019 when the sector had been registering several years of record-breaking levels. In 2020, the leading source market for tourism to Spain was France with 3.9 million tourists, compared to 3.2 million from … Continued
Industrial production, Spain In 2020, after six consecutive years of growth, the industrial production index (IPI) recorded an average yearly decrease of 9.1%. This is the biggest fall since 2009 when production slumped 16.2% at the height of the financial crisis. The reduction, which was especially intense between March and June, is a partial reflection of … Continued