Author: Departamento de economía

China faces mild recovery after pandemic AFTER A STRONG 1st QUARTER IN WHICH CHINA RECORDED A STRONG REBOUND AFTER COVID RESTRICTIONS EASED, ECONOMIC RECOVERY ENTERS A SLOWER 2ND STAGE GDP rebounds in 2023 to 5.5% before slowing down by 9 tenths in 2024 2023 marked by the containment of commodity and food prices and a … Continued

Upward revision of GDP evolution in 2023 LOWER ENERGY PRICES, EASING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS, IMPROVED BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND A STRONG LABOR MARKET JUSTIFY THE IMPROVEMENT IN GDP FORECASTS, ALTHOUGH GROWTH RATES REMAIN MODERATE Ireland and Malta will lead growth in 2023. Spain, in 7th position, growing by 1.9% y-o-y, 4 tenths of a pp more than … Continued

Global logistics performance “LOGISTICS IS VITAL TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND TRADE IS, IN TURN, A POWERFUL ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION” (Mona Haddad, WORLD BANK) European dominance in the 2023 global ranking led by Singapore THE RECENT SUPPLY CHAIN CRISIS DID NOT SUBSTANTIALLY ALTER THE LPI PATTERN Average LPI score stable in 2023, … Continued

Global merchandise trade 2022 IN 2022, THE VOLUME OF GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRADE GREW BY 2.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR. IN TERMS OF AVERAGE $ VALUE, IT INCREASED BY 12% TO REACH $25.6 TRILLION The 2.7% increase in volume is lower than expected in Oct. 22 (+3.5%) due to the drop in Q422 The sectors with the highest growth … Continued

Moderate GDP recovery in 2024 GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS HIGHER GROWTH MAINLY DUE TO MODERATION OF INFLATION AND CHINA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER ITS REOPENING The OECD improves its global growth forecast for 2023/24, although growth is lower than forecast before the outbreak of war in Ukraine Global PMIs rebound in early 2023 Improved consumer confidence Slight … Continued

Global economic freedom continues to deteriorate THE RENUNCIATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM IN MANY ECONOMIES CAN UNDERMINE RECOVERY AND SACRIFICE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND LONG-TERM PROSPERITY The overall average score for economic freedom fell by 7 tenths in IEF 23 to its lowest level in two decades According to the Heritage Foundation, “low scores … Continued

Labour productivity in the OECD countries THERE ARE LARGE DISPARITIES IN LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS BETWEEN COUNTRIES, EVEN WITHIN THE OECD AREA In 2021, average labour productivity in the OECD stood at $60.8/hour Most of the countries with the lowest labour productivity in 2000 have since increased it IN 2020, THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON … Continued

Perception of corruption in the public sector 2022 IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT OF UNCERTAINTY, COUNTRIES THAT DO NOT ADDRESS THEIR CORRUPTION PROBLEMS AGGRAVATE THEIR EFFECTS AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEMOCRATIC DECLINE The global average for the degree of corruption in the public sector remains at 43 points out of 100 In the last decade, corruption perception … Continued

Global short- and long-term risks (Global Risks Report 2023) THE RETURN TO THE “NEW NORMAL” AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS QUICKLY INTERRUPTED BY THE OUTBREAK OF WAR IN UKRAINE, WHICH LED TO THE CURRENT FOOD AND ENERGY CRISES Current risks with the greatest potential impact on a global scale More than 2/3 of respondents expect … Continued

FROM A REVOLUTIONARY AND DISRUPTIVE POINT OF VIEW, THESE ARE THE TEN UNLIKELY EVENTS WITH A MAJOR IMPACT ON GLOBAL GROWTH AND FINANCIAL MARKETS (SAXO BANK 2023 OUTRAGEOUS PREDICTIONS ) 1 “Third Stone” billionaire coalition for a new energy system ▲ demand for electricity in the context of digitalization and energy transition → creation of … Continued

Sharp slowdown in global GDP growth in 2023 IN 2023, WORLD GDP WILL SLOW TO 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR, 9 TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT LESS THAN ESTIMATED FOR 2022, WELL BELOW THE RATE FORECAST BEFORE THE WAR. IN 2024, THE INCREASE WILL BE 2.7% Slight recovery in 2024 with real income growth and moderating inflationary pressures … Continued

Ageing conditions the sustainability of the system IN 2050 SPAIN WILL BE THE SECOND COUNTRY IN THE OECD, AFTER JAPAN, WITH THE HIGHEST DEPENDENCY RATIO *, WHICH WILL BE 78.4%, 25.7 PP HIGHER THAN THE OECD AVERAGE The dependency ratio in Spain will increase by 45.6 pp between 2020 and 2050, more than double the … Continued

Forecasts not credible and not able to build confidence UNREALISTIC PERCEPTION OF LATENT RISKS IN A CONTEXT OF HIGH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY Spain will not regain pre-pandemic GDP level until Q1 2024 Structural deficit consolidation FINANCING OF NEW STRUCTURAL EXPENDITURE WITH THE CYCLICAL INCREASE IN REVENUE RESULTING FROM THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON THE … Continued

Global innovation trends REGIONAL INNOVATION GAP PERSISTS BUT SOUTH-EAST ASIA AND EAST ASIA CLOSE THE GAP WITH NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE Switzerland maintains its leadership and the US overtakes Sweden to take second place in the global innovation ranking Spain’s innovation profile SPAIN’S STRENGTHS IN INNOVATION INCLUDE SPENDING ON SOFTWARE (%GDP) AND ENROLMENT IN HIGHER … Continued

Deterioration of the global economic outlook GLOBAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO MODERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2022 AND TO SLOW IN 2023 TO 2.2% High inflation persists for longer than expected FOR THE MAJOR ECONOMIES, INFLATION IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN 3Q22 AND TO DECLINE FROM 4Q22 ONWARDS, BUT TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CENTRAL … Continued