Service Sector Activity Indicators By Autonomous Community, the increases in turnover in Castilla-La Mancha (31.8%), Castilla&León (30.9%) and Galicia (30.8%) stand out Regarding employment, the biggest decreases were in the Balearic Islands (12.3%) and the Canary Islands (8.6%). Industrial Prices Index (IPRI) Temporary employment * in Spain Flash composite PMI index of total activity In … Continued
The pandemic and the measures to prevent the spread of the virus have altered household money management behavior. Savings shot up in Q2 2020 as a result of the strict lockdown in response to the pandemic. Spanish families increase their savings way above those of German ones in times of crisis. Private consumption decreased mainly out … Continued
We analyze how the pandemic has affected the economies of India and China. In September, there were more than 25 million cases of Coronavirus worldwide (0.3% of the cases in world population). In accumulated terms, the US is the country with the largest number of cases, followed by India. Currently, India is the country with … Continued
Labour market, Spain In June, the number of affiliates to the Social Security system registered a moderate increase of 0.4% year-on-year, to 18,624,337 people. By sectors, construction experienced the biggest increase at 3.7% month-onmonth, followed by industry (0.7%) and the service sector (0.3%). On the other hand, agriculture fell 3.2%. In spite of the increase, … Continued
The OECD forecasts two growth outcomes conditioned by a possible second wave of the virus before the end of the year. Spain tops the table for the countries hardest hit by the economic collapse, with a fall of 14.4% according to pessimistic forecasts. The OECD projects a significant increase in unemployment in 2020, with temporary … Continued
Industrial production, Spain In April, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) fell 33.6% year-on-year. This is the biggest decrease since reporting began, in a context marked by the impact of the lockdown measures to contain the spread of Covid-19. According to goods types, the biggest decreases were with consumer durables (-67.5%) and capital goods (-57.4%). Production … Continued
Overview of the economic situation Q2 2020 The Covid-19 crisis has had one of the biggest economic impacts of our recent history The lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus have generated an unprecedented economic standstill. In this context, international organizations (the IMF, OECD, World Bank and European Commission) are forecasting a contraction … Continued
The slump in economic activity as a result of Covid-19 has led to the biggest drop in employment in one month in its history, falling back to 2009 levels. In April, the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, while the average hourly wage worked increased 7.9%, to $ 30.01. By sector, the leisure and hospitality industry … Continued
National Accounts, Spain The lockdown and economic hibernation measures adopted to halt the spread of Covid-19 have contracted GDP by 4.1% in Q1 2020, the worst figure since Q2 2009 (-4.4%). In the domestic demand, the fall in private consumption (–6.7% year-on-year) and investment (-5.5%) stand out against the increase of public spending by 3.6%. … Continued
In 2020, GDP of the main European cities will plunge due to the impact of Covid-19. The contraction will be conditioned by the structural characteristics of each city. By sectors, the service sector, and in particular the hospitality industry, will be hardest hit economically. In cities, GDP growth will be conditioned by their exposure to … Continued
Business confidence, Spain In the second quarter (Q2) of 2020, the Business Confidence Index (BCI)1 was at 95.5 points, the lowest level since the start of the series, falling 26.9% with respect to the first quarter of the year. 75.1% of business managers think their company performance will be negative in the second quarter, 21.8% … Continued
On 9 March 2020, the Dow Jones, along with the other stock market indexes, registeredone of th e biggest ever falls in its history, caused by the impact and uncertainty surrounding the international spread of the coronavirus. As a result of the situation, the authorities have responded with a wide range of monetary and fiscal … Continued
Coronavirus impact, Spain According to CEPYME, the stagnation of the Spanish economy1 due to the coronavirus will slow down private consumption with a direct impact on GDP of 0.9% (or 1.7% if indirect effects are taken into consideration), and a possible loss of 313,692 jobs. By company size, small and medium-size enterprises will be the … Continued
Faced with the economic impact of the coronavirus, central banks have responded with significant interest rate reductions and liquidity provisions, limiting their options for future adjustments. Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks have already significantly lowered their interest rates and increased their balance sheets through bulk asset purchasing programs (QE). Future measures by central … Continued
Industrial Production, Spain In January, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) decreased 2.1% year-on-year, its biggest drop since March 2019 (-2.7%). By sectors, all have fallen, especially in energy (-5.8%) and consumer goods (-1.8%). By Autonomous Community, the IPI only increased in Navarra (8.6%) and Galicia (2.9%), while the largest declines were recorded in Andalusia (-12.1%), … Continued
Germany accounts for 29% of Eurozone GDP and 25% of its population. In the previous decade, its unemployment rate has remained below the average for the Eurozone, reaching its current level of 3.2%. German GDP growth has fluctuated within a range of just 1 pp between 1981 and 2020, in spite of the slowdown that … Continued
Financing, Spain In H2 2019, growth in lending to households and non-financial companies diminished compared with 2018. This is mainly explained by the gloomy economic outlook and the slight tightening of loan standards, although the financing costs remained at fairly moderate levels. In the case of households, bank loans rose on average by 0.2% year-on-year, … Continued
Industrial production, Spain In 2019, the Industrial Production Index in Spain (IPI) rose by an average of 0.6% yearon- year compared to the decline in the Eurozone (-1.7%). Nonetheless, this increase was 0.14pp lower than in 2018, and the lowest increase since 2014. By sectors, the increase in production of capital goods (2.5% year-on-year) and … Continued
Brexit materialised on January 31, 2020, entering a transition period to negotiate the future relationship until December 31. Before leaving the EU, the United Kingdom was the 2nd largest economy in the EU, representing 15.2% of European GDP and 12.9% of its population. Moreover, its GDP per capita exceeds the EU average by 11%, and … Continued
Forecasts, Spain Against the backdrop of the current synchronised global economic slowdown, the main national and international organisations forecast growth of between 1.9% and 2% annually in 2019 for the Spanish economy. Additionally, by 2020, the Funcas Consensus forecasts that growth will slow down to 1.6%. This rate will be based mainly on the positive … Continued
Even though present society is going through an extraordinary process of transformation and economic growth, it is of the utmost importance to tackle climate change to ensure that such growth is sustainable. In the last 100 years, worldwide CO emissions have increased tenfold, with China and the US emitting the most, According to the Global … Continued
Industrial production, Spain In November 2019, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) in Spain increased by 2.1% year-on-year, compared with the 3% decline registered in the same month of 2018. This increase is the second largest of the year since the 2.8% increase in January, in a context where the industrial production throughout the Eurozone has … Continued
Overview of the economic situation Q4 2019 The main international organisations ( IMF, OECD, World Bank, and European Commission) warn of a global economy in a synchronised slowdown against the backdrop of mounting uncertainty and new geopolitical risks Thus, the second half of 2019 has been marked by the outbreak of social protests and institutional … Continued
Incidents that describe highly improbable but high economic impact events.
Bank of Spain forecasts The Bank of Spain forecasts that the Spanish economy will embark on a gradual path of deceleration until 2022, and therefore maintains its 2% and 1.7% annual growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, respectively. GDP growth rests on the back of positive evolution of domestic demand owing to the healthy wealth … Continued
Population ageing is a global phenomenon that predominantly affects the most advanced countries due to the declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Spain is one of the longest-lived and most ageing countries in the world. It also has one of the lowest fertility rates (1.25) of the OECD countries, with a negative natural change … Continued
Tourism, Spain Between January and October 2019, tourist arrivals in Spain increased by 1.1% year-onyear, which is 0.5pp more than the increase recorded in the same period last year, amounting to 74.4 million visitors. Despite this increase, the tourist arrivals from the following main tourist sending countries dropped: • The United Kingdom (22% of the … Continued
From the uncertainty and the global economic slowdown, to the trade tensions and the evolution of the raw materials prices, all of which undermine the growth of Latin America, with forecasts in 2019 pointing towards an economic stagnation (0.2% annual GDP growth). The growth forecasts for the main economies of the region have been revised … Continued
Trade in goods, Spain Between January and September (Eurostat), exports of Spanish goods increased by 1.4% year-on-year, which is 2.5pp less than in the same period of 2018, to €221.5 billion (18.4% of GDP). Concurrently, imports slowed down to a moderate growth of 1% year-onyear, compared with 6.3% in the same period last year, standing … Continued
Currently, the economic growth and progress of countries is not only supported by structural factors such as the demographic pattern or productivity improvement, but also in new disruptive forces such as digitization, climate change, or populism. From the Top 5 countries that are ranked in the Bloomberg Drivers & Disrupters Report, Sweden, Denmark, and Australia … Continued
GDP, Spain The European Commission has reduced the previous growth forecasts of the Spanish economy from 2.3% to 1.9% in 2019 and from 1.9% to 1.5% in 2020. The downwardly revised new forecasts are mainly explained by the revision of the historical series of the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) and the moderation of the … Continued
Balance of trade, Spain In 2019, between January and August, the exports of goods increased by 1.1% year-onyear, which is 3.1pp less than in the same period of 2018, amounting to €192,131 million (15.9% of the GDP). Whereas for the same period, the imports of goods dampened down to 1.2% year-on-year (vs 6.1% year-on-year in … Continued
Economic slowdown In August, Spain recorded the third largest economic slowdown among OECD ountries, after Ireland and Slovenia. Specifically, the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) decreased by 0.22 points to 98.58 and has been below 100 points1 for 12 months now. In turn, the rate at which the Spanish economy is slowing down has doubled that of … Continued
